According to the latest results of a survey conducted by the NGO Institute for Societal Studies in cooperation with polling firm Norstat Eesti AS, Isamaa is supported by 31.2 percent of eligible voters, the Reform Party by 17 percent and the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) by 16.9 percent.

Support for Isamaa, which holds the leading position, is at its highest level since early 2019, when Norstat began conducting party preference surveys. The gap between the ruling Reform Party and opposition Isamaa stands at 14.2 percentage points, while EKRE's support is nearly equal to that of the Reform Party, Norstat noted in its commentary.

Following the top three parties are the Center Party with 13.2 percent and the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 11.6 percent. Among parliamentary parties, Eesti 200 has the lowest level of support at 2.5 percent. Support for the Center Party has declined by 1.9 percentage points over the past four weeks.

A total of 31.1 percent of respondents support coalition parties, while 61.3 percent back opposition parties.

Norstat conducted the surveys in four rounds between January 20-26, January 27-February 2, February 3-9 and February 10-16, with a total of 4,000 respondents — Estonian citizens aged 18 and older. To ensure the sample was as representative as possible, the survey was carried out using a combination of telephone and online interviews, with telephone respondents making up the majority. The data was weighted to match the proportional distribution of eligible voters based on key sociodemographic characteristics.

The maximum margin of error for the survey depends on the size of the largest support group. In this case, Isamaa had the highest level of support, resulting in a margin of error of +/-1.75 percentage points. For other parties, the margin of error is smaller — for example, +/-0.59 percentage points for Eesti 200.

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