Voog noted that the last time the Reform Party's support was at its current level was 21 years ago. "They have had much better times when their rating was above 40 percent," he said.

Host Indrek Kiisler pointed out that the Reform Party's rating was higher when there were hopes associated with the government change.

Co-host Anvar Samost added that, looking at the support for coalition parties, a moment has arrived where voters have begun to drift away from the Reform Party.

"In particular, over the past month, there have been several issues that have been uncomfortable for the Reform Party, from which the Social Democratic Party and Eesti 200 have managed to distance themselves," Samost said.

Samost also mentioned that tax notifications received at the beginning of the year may have had some impact on the decline in support.

Kiisler, referring to the confusion surrounding support for offshore wind farm development, asked whether it would be reasonable for Prime Minister Kristen Michal to recall Climate Minister Yoko Alender (both Reform). "Would this change demonstrate that the prime minister is in control?" he asked.

According to Samost, a government reshuffle might not solve the Reform Party's problems. He explained that when coalition support declines, a cabinet reshuffle is often seen as a solution. However, what makes this government different is that when it took office six months ago, it promised to bring stability and certainty to both the tax environment and society at large. "That's why a reshuffle would be complicated and also unlikely," Samost said.

Voog pointed out that since the Reform Party and Isamaa have historically had overlapping voter bases, Reform Party supporters have now shifted their backing to Isamaa.

Samost also highlighted that the Reform Party being in a weaker position than the Center Party looks bad for them.

"In terms of emotional sentiment, this is very bad for the Reform Party. Their core message has been that they are a party of winners. This situation has a very negative effect on them," Samost said.

According to Voog, in previous months, the Reform Party's support was ensured by older voters, while younger voters had already been lost to Eesti 200 and then shifted their support to the Social Democratic Party. "Now they have also lost older voters to Isamaa," Voog noted.

He added that the Reform Party has lost its key advantage — competence in economic matters.

Samost pointed out that entrepreneurs and business organizations have been highly critical of the Reform Party.

Speaking about EKRE, Voog said that the party has regained its core voters but remains far from its previous support level, which exceeded 20 percent. "EKRE's growth in support is being hindered by Isamaa, which has taken voters from them," Voog said.

Samost noted that EKRE still carries an image of being unconstructive. "Voters who are not constantly angry do not feel comfortable with that rhetoric. Isamaa, on the other hand, has skillfully managed to criticize the government while also appearing constructive," Samost said. He added that while EKRE's contribution to the energy debate has been limited to sending traveling protesters against wind turbines, Isamaa has presented a degree of expertise and created the impression that it could govern effectively.

Kiisler pointed out that EKRE has managed to attract some Russian-speaking voters. "EKRE echoes certain 'light' Russian talking points, such as questioning whether Ukraine is a legitimate state. I believe they do this to gain support from Russian-speaking voters," Kiisler said.

According to Samost, support for the Social Democrats has been rather inconsistent. "They are the only ones in the government behaving like an opposition party, acting in campaign mode. This is good for differentiation but complicated when it comes to winning votes," he said.

Kiisler argued that the controversies surrounding the Russian Orthodox Church have created a highly negative image for the Social Democrats.

As for Eesti 200, Kiisler does not see a bright future. "I predict that before the local elections, some well-known names will leave for Isamaa. This could lead to further departures. There is not much left to save there," Kiisler said.

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