Norstat poll shows EKRE rating inching up
In the past week, EKRE was the only major party to see a rise in support, while others remained steady or saw slight declines, a new Norstat poll shows.
Based on the latest results, 28.3 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 19.6 percent back the Center Party and 17.8 percent support the Conservative People's Party (EKRE).
Support for Isamaa, which holds the top spot, and for the Center Party in second place remained unchanged over the past week, with an 8.7 percentage point gap between the two. EKRE, in third place, saw its support rise by 1.1 percentage points and now trails the Center Party by 1.8 points.
Following the top three are the Reform Party (12 percent), the Social Democratic Party (11.2 percent), Parempoolsed (5.6 percent) and Eesti 200 (2.5 percent).
In total, 14.5 percent of respondents support the coalition parties, while 76.9 percent support opposition parties represented in the Riigikogu.
Once a month, in addition to asking about party preferences, Norstat also surveys public opinion on the performance of the government and the prime minister. According to the latest results, 23 percent of respondents believe the government is doing very well or rather well, while 73 percent think the government is performing rather poorly or very poorly.
As for Prime Minister Kristen Michal's (Reform) performance, 19 percent of respondents approve, while 65 percent disapprove.
The Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat Eesti present data based on a four-week rolling average, meaning the sample includes at least 4,000 people. Voters without a party preference are excluded from the calculation of relative party support.
The surveys were conducted during the periods September 15–22, September 1–28, September 29–October 5 and October 6–12, with a total of 4,001 Estonian citizens aged 18 and over responding.
The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest subgroup. In this case, that was Isamaa's supporters, with a margin of error of ±1.73 percentage points. For smaller parties, the margin of error is lower — for example, ±0.6 percentage points for Eesti 200.
To ensure the sample is as representative as possible, Norstat used a combined method of telephone and online surveys, with the majority of responses collected via phone. The results were weighted to reflect the demographic breakdown of eligible voters based on key socioeconomic indicators.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Mait Ots
