Farmers may skip autumn grain planting due to rising fertilizer prices

Some Estonian farmers may skip sowing grain later this year as fertilizer prices have risen worldwide due to the Iran war. Food prices are not expected to rise as grain reserves are currently at a five-year high.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran following the start of U.S.-Israel attacks on the country is also worrying the fertilizer market. Nitrogen fertilizer production requires large amounts of natural gas, meaning the price of one is directly dependent on the other.
Margus Ameerikas, development director of agribusiness Baltic Agro, which sells fertilisers, told Saturday's "Aktuaalne kaamera": "When the war started, in the first days, some larger companies even stopped selling fertilizers. We were forced to issue a new price list almost every day as prices were rising so quickly that the previous day's price was no longer valid."
The price of some fertilizers has already risen by 30 percent to 50 percent.
Estonia's annual fertilizer imports amount to €120 million, which means an approximate increase of €50–60 million.
Ants-Hannes Viira, head of agricultural policy at Estonia's Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce, said: "Today, this most affects farmers who grow grain, both crop producers as well as dairy and livestock farmers. At the moment, the most critical issue is the sowing of spring crops. The sowing period is approaching, fertilizer prices are high, and we see that at current fertilizer prices, sowing spring crops is not very reasonable, because there is a very high likelihood of losses."
A similar situation is seen elsewhere in the world, including the U.S. Midwest.
Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX Group, Inc Arlan Suderman described the situation: "If this comes to an end tomorrow or next week and the Strait of Hormuz is opened up, then we will quickly see those prices drop back down once again. If this continues for another three to four weeks, prices escalate more. So, it is a risk they [farmers] have to face, have to determine – you know, do I take the price that I have now which narrows things up, do I risk that it might come down here in a couple of weeks, or go more expensive."
Estonian experts said domestic farmers are fairly well prepared for the spring and summer period and have purchased about 90 percent of the fertilizer they need.
But there are concerns about the coming autumn, as fertilizer procurement usually begins in the summer. Farmers are now considering different sowing options, which could reduce grain production. However, grain prices are not expected to rise quickly as global reserves are currently at a five-year high.
"What will likely happen is that due to high fertilizer prices, grain cultivation and yields will decrease, reserves will decline, and the impact on food prices, grain prices, and milk prices will come with a delay. More likely in the autumn, possibly in winter. We are not seeing price increases today," Viira, from the Chamber of Agriculture and Commerce, said.
Instead, he is concerned that the impact of the Iran war could be long-term, as gas processing facilities in the region have also been damaged. Restoring this infrastructure could take significantly longer than reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Viira said.
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Editor: Helen Wright, Marko Tooming









