Both parties are in opposition, and Center's rating is now 24.9 percent compared with Isamaa's 22 percent, according to the survey, conducted on a weekly basis on behalf of the Institute for Societal Research.

The Social Democrats (SDE), also in opposition, had a rating of 17.8 percent meanwhile, up 3.1 percentage points over a five-week period.

The fourth opposition party, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) polled at 13 percent, ahead of the coalition Reform Party at 11.6 percent. Support for the prime minister's party has been declining steadily.

With a rating of 6.2 percent, the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed would clear the electoral threshold of 5-percent, and win seats, if the poll translated into electoral results.

The same cannot be said for coalition partner Eesti 200, which polled at just 1.1 percent — its lowest level in any Norstat poll since being founded in 2018 and following many months of ratings below the 5-percent threshold.

All the other parties had a rating below 1 percent: The Estonian Greens (Rohelised) were on 0.7 percent, KOOS on 0.6 percent and the ERK 0.3 percent.

Taken together, the coalition parties have a12.7 percent rating compared with the opposition parties in the Riigikogu at 77.7 percent.

According to calculations by political scientist Martin Mölder, these figures would translate into 28 seats for the Center Party, 24 for Isamaa, 19 for SDE – all significant rises on their current tallies. Meanwhile EKRE would pick up 13 seats, Reform 11 and Parempoolsed six, following the same calculation.

The gap between Center and Isamaa is now 2.9 percentage points, and between Isamaa and SDE 4.2 points.

Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over the preceding four weeks. The latest poll surveyed 4,000 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (18 and over) between October 12 and November 8 this year.

The Riigikogu elections take place in March.

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