"Not that I'm particularly distressed about it, but I've still been quite astonished to watch what Isamaa is doing right now, as everyone is overtaking them at full speed," political analyst and head of the SALK think tank Tarmo Jüristo told Vikerraadio Wednesday.

SALK provides its polling results and analyses to liberal parties and, to some extent, the Center Party, but not to EKRE or Isamaa.

"Isamaa has been on a gradual decline since the beginning of the year," Jüristo said, referring to how the Center Party has overtaken Isamaa in polls conducted by both the Institute for Societal Studies and SALK.

"When [Isamaa board member] Riina Solman and a few others, including [Isamaa Chairman Urmas] Reinsalu, I believe, have said that Isamaa is timing its peak performance for the elections, I wonder how what they're doing now — dealing with the management crisis at Tallinn Zoo and all sorts of other things, [Kristiine district elder] Ahti Kallikorm publishing strange articles comparing the European Union to the Soviet Union and so on — fits into their campaign strategy," Jüristo said.

"When I look at the numbers, it seems to me that Isamaa should have realized long ago that it needs to get moving and do something about these issues. But the fact that they're holding back their peak performance right now has been a bit surprising to me, because there really isn't that much time left for them to keep putting things off. But maybe next week," he said.

Discussing how other parties are preparing for the elections, Jüristo highlighted how the Reform Party has placed a strong emphasis on pensions, promising not to cut them, alongside its usual focus on security and the economy.

This puts the Reform Party at odds with Parempoolsed (Right-Wingers), which has promised to freeze pensions. According to Jüristo, Parempoolsed is trying to outflank the prime minister's party on the right by adopting an even more economically liberal stance than the Reform Party.

He also pointed out that, contrary to popular belief, pensioners do not overwhelmingly vote for the Center Party. In the last election, their votes were split primarily between the Center Party and the Reform Party.

"Your voting preferences largely stay with you throughout your life and those who were economically successful 30-year-olds in the 1990s are now starting to reach retirement age. That means it makes perfect sense for the Reform Party to adapt to the changing priorities of its core voters and pensions are an important issue for people approaching retirement," he explained.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats need to tailor their campaign messages to reflect the higher proportion of young people among their supporters, the analyst noted.

"Social Democratic voters are very young and the party's support among young people is very high compared with other age groups. That, in turn, determines which issues the Social Democrats want to focus on during the campaign — issues that tend to be more relevant to younger voters."

The program also included an extended discussion about compiling candidate lists and the criteria used to decide which electoral districts candidates should run in.

Isamaa would still win today

Asked who he predicts will win the March 7 elections, Jüristo stressed that it is still too early to say, but that if the elections were held this Sunday, either Isamaa or the Center Party would win.

"At this point, I'd still lean slightly toward Isamaa, simply because the Center Party's support is somewhat softer. Russian-speaking voters are less likely to turn out, which makes it a little harder for the Center Party to translate its support into actual votes than it is for Isamaa," he explained.

"But that's a slightly different question from who will win the elections on March 7. And realistically, it's impossible to say anything about that right now," he noted.

Jüristo highlighted the rise of the Social Democrats, whose support has grown to around 17 percent, putting them further ahead of EKRE and the Reform Party.

"They've now made it roughly halfway to where they need to be, around 21-22 percent, where Isamaa and the Center Party currently stand. Four or five percentage points might not sound like much, but gaining that much support actually takes a lot of work. They seem to have good momentum right now, especially since Isamaa still appears to be in a state of lethargic slumber. But I'm fairly certain that won't last, that the campaigns will pick up steam and a lot could change," he said.

"Just think back to the last elections, for example, and what happened in the final six months before election day and how much those developments changed the outcome. What you can predict six months in advance isn't really a prediction. It's a hypothetical snapshot of where everyone stands on the starting blocks today. But how fast each party runs and which path it takes will have a much greater impact on the result than where things stand today," he said, summing up the situation.

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