Expert: Top players quitting bad news for the Reform Party
Replacing high-profile members who have recently quit politics will be a major challenge for the Reform Party, political analyst Tarmo Jüristo finds.
The Reform Party has lost several prominent figures ahead of the next Riigikogu elections, raising questions about how the departures could affect its electoral prospects
In September, Andres Sutt, who has served as both minister of entrepreneurship and information technology and minister of energy and industry, announced his retirement from politics. Over the past two weeks, three other senior Reform Party politicians have announced that they will not run in the next Riigikogu elections. They are former Education Minister Liina Kersna; Maris Lauri, who has served as finance minister, justice minister and education minister, and, most recently, longtime Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
Political analyst Tarmo Jüristo told ERR that all four politicians attracted significant numbers of votes in the previous elections.
Pevkur received around 6,500 votes, the sixth-highest total among Reform Party candidates, while Kersna and Lauri each secured around 4,000 and Sutt received 3,300. By comparison, Isamaa Chairman Urmas Reinsalu received just under 4,500 votes.
According to Jüristo, the Reform Party is counting on its brand recognition to offset the loss of these well-known candidates. Polling suggests that its remaining supporters are relatively loyal to the party and may simply shift their votes to other names on its candidate lists.
However, he warned that individual candidates can have a significant impact on election results.
"Since all of them have been prominent and recognizable figures as ministers, I can't imagine this being good news heading into an election campaign," Jüristo said.
While he could not estimate how many Riigikogu seats the departures might cost the Reform Party, Jüristo said recruiting former Defense Forces commander Martin Herem as a candidate has become particularly important.
"For the Reform Party, it is now becoming absolutely critical to somehow persuade Martin Herem to run. But if that were an easy task, we probably would have heard about it already," he said.
Jüristo said the party needs a strong candidate with a background in national security, particularly as the Social Democrats now have former Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov among their ranks.
Although Herem could help fill the gap left by Pevkur in government, his contribution to the Reform Party's election campaign would be limited unless he actually ran on the party's ticket.
"If he's not on the party's candidate list or appearing on campaign posters with that yellow background, he's of relatively little help to the Reform Party's campaign," Jüristo said.
Jüristo also attributed the timing of the announcements to the approaching deadline for finalizing candidate lists, which is forcing parties and potential candidates to make decisions.
"Until now, people could remain undecided or say, 'Let's not decide just yet. Let's discuss it and think it over.' But now time is running out. Decisions have to be made. If one person isn't running, someone else has to take their place," he said.
However, Jüristo dismissed the suggestion that Pevkur's departure might have been prompted by a dispute over his position on the Reform Party's candidate list or his preferred electoral district.
Pevkur, who stepped down as defense minister in September, announced Wednesday that he would not run in the next Riigikogu elections and would leave politics altogether.
Estonia is set to hold parliamentary elections in March of next year.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Marcus Turovski
