Survey: Reform looking at certain victory in European Parliament elections

Outdoor ad promoting Andrus Ansip for the European Parliament.
Outdoor ad promoting Andrus Ansip for the European Parliament. Source: Reform Party

32% of Estonian voters have promised to vote for a Reform Party candidate in next month's European Parliament elections, according to the results of a survey commissioned by ERR and conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. Should Estonia continue with six seats, this would mean at least two mandates.

According to the survey, in which 1,000 people across the country were polled, 32% of voters to express a political preference expressed support for the Reform Party in the upcoming European elections.

Support for the Centre Party, meanwhile, has remained at the same level as its support in the 3 March Riigikogu election — 24%. Another 15% intend to vote for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

The two remaining parliamentary parties, Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party (SDE), have the support of 9% and 7% of voters, respectively. Estonia 200, which failed to meet the 5% election threshold in the Riigikogu election, likewise has the support of 7% of voters.

Should Estonia continue with six seats in the European Parliament, this would mean two seats for sure for the Reform Party and likely two seats for Centre as well. EKRE could count on at least one seat. The sixth, meanwhile, would be a toss-up between Isamaa, the SDE and Estonia 200.

Should Estonia end up with seven seats, however, the additional mandate may go to either Reform or one of the bottom three parties (Isamaa, SDE or Estonia 200).

It is worth noting that this survey only included the names of political parties, meaning the survey in effect measured the popularity of various political parties ahead of the European Parliament election. The inclusion of actual candidates may significantly affect support numbers, especially as Estonia constitutes a single electoral district in the European elections. ERR's next survey, in May, will include all candidates running for election to the European Parliament.

66 candidates competing for Estonia's seats

A total of nine parties and five independent candidates, 66 candidates in all, are running in the 2019 European Parliament election next month.

Isamaa, EKRE, Reform, Estonia 200, the SDE and Centre are running full lists of nine candidates each; the Richness of Life Party (ERE) and the Estonian Greens are running three candidates each, while the Estonian United Left Party (EÜVP) is running one candidate.

The National Electoral Committee (VVK) registered five independent candidates: Erik Orgu, Maria Kaljuste, Argo Mõttus, Harry Raudvere and Raimond Kaljulaid.

The 2019 European Parliament elections will take place in Estonia on 26 May. Voting in foreign missions will take place from 11-16 May, with advance and e-voting to begin on 16 May. 

Editor: Aili Vahtla

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