Health Board predicts Estonia will reach 'green' risk level by Christmas

A woman wearing a mask at Tallinn's Christmas Market on November 29., 2021.
A woman wearing a mask at Tallinn's Christmas Market on November 29., 2021. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

In its weekly overview (link in Estonian), the Health Board predicts the downward coronavirus infection trend to continue, which would put Estonia in the "green" risk level by Christmas. The R rate has increased some, but is still below 1.

The 14-day infection rate decreased in all 15 Estonian counties by an average of 21 percent over the last week, the highest decrease was in Lääne-Viru County (41.4 percent), Lääne County (40.8 percent), Rapla County (31.1 percent) and Tartu County (30 percent).

The infection R rate has increased some and is now between 0.8-0.9, meaning one infected person spreads the infection to less than one person on average, reflecting a downward trend in infections.

The R rate. Source: Health Board

The Health Board predicts that the downward trend will continue with daily new case numbers somewhere around 600, adding up to a total of some 4,000 infections in a week.

The government's risk matrix, which has been updated to take hospitalizations into consideration with more effect, has Estonia still in the "orange" or high level of coronavirus spread. The Health Board's overview states that the risk of spread in Estonia could reach the "green" level, i.e. the very low level.

Estonia is currently on "yellow", i.e. the moderate risk level.

The risk matrix. Source: Health Board

There have been no cases of the Omicron variant discovered in Estonia yet and the country has imposed new testing measures on arrival from 10 countries. In addition, all travelers arriving in Estonia must fill in a passenger locator form before crossing the border.

The number of infections decreased in all Estonian counties and age groups, except for the 10-14 age group.

With Christmas approaching, there are bound to be more major events and more contacts between people, which could lead to increased spread. With the spread of the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus, the Health Board deems it important to reduce the number of hospitalizations to as low as possible, easing the pressure off the hospital network.

Infection forecast, the pinkish-orange bars show the number of cases going back, the teal bar shows the estimated daily cases going forward, the black line shows the 7-day average. Source: Health Board

Last week, there were 55 deaths with the youngest being 41 years old and the oldest 98 years old. The average age was 77.7 years. Of the 55 deaths, 41 (74.5 percent) were unvaccinated people.

The vaccination process had been completed for 14 people (17 percent), 12 were vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. All dead patients had co-morbidities.

There were some 34,800 vaccine doses administered over the previous week, down 14.31 percent from the week prior (40,613 doses).


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Editor: Kristjan Kallaste

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