Saks: Russia military build-up near Estonian border not what it might seem
A build-up of Russian military forces in the area close to Estonia's border is both a response to Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO and a preliminary to those forces in fact being deployed to Ukraine, security expert Rainer Saks says.
Speaking to ETV news show "Aktuaalne kaamera" (AK) following the publication of the Foreign Intelligence Service's (VLA) annual report Tuesday, which referenced these plans, Saks noted their provisional nature.
"Russia has to react to the expansion of NATO in this way. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, which has served to greatly strengthen the alliance's presence in the Baltic Sea region," Saks said.
"Russia meanwhile has suffered particularly heavy losses in Ukraine, so it has to regroup and boost its Westward-aimed deterrence," he went on.
Further news on Tuesday that Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) had been added to a Russian interior ministry "wanted" list is improvisational in nature and will carry with it no serious consequences, Saks added.
At the same time, "it will definitely raise her profile," he noted.
"I don't think she is going to see any serious problems arising from it, however," the expert went on.
"Various political forces have been nominated [to the Russian list] from different countries. A minister from Lithuania, a number of Latvian MPs etc. Ultimately, Kaja Kallas' actions have gotten to Russia, so the decision was made to try and demoralize her personally."
Why State Secretary Taimar Peterkop, who heads up the government office, also made the list was "incomprehensible" to Saks.
The Russian plan to beef up its military numbers in the district closest to Estonia and the Baltic states is a precursor to those units being sent to Ukraine, Saks went on, stressing that Russian units now on the front line in Ukraine are far more poorly trained and equipped than those Russia was able to deploy at the start of the invasion, even as those more effective forces were foiled, notably in the assault on Kyiv.
War fatigue too has been notable in Russia, Saks said, putting this down to the massive losses already suffered; one day, the scale of the war losses will fully sink in within Russian society, he added. "And in that case, I believe that it will be accompanied by pressure on the Russian political leadership."
Saks also said European countries' will to contribute to defense costs has not fallen and has risen. "Our task is to constantly boost our defense capabilities. If necessary, we will raise defense spending further still, we will produce more weaponry. All this needs to be done now, so that we don't have to prove to Russia later on our will to resist.
The rest of the interview dealt with tech and infrastructure, with Saks pointing out that some tech produced in China, such as robot vacuum cleaners for the home, do not present any security risk.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Valner Väino
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' interviewer Margus Saar