Speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera" (AK), Lumi noted that with three parties now representing the conservative end of the spectrum, with the nascent ERK party joining the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), from which it split, along with Isamaa, it would appear there simply isn't room for all three on the political landscape in Estonia.

Lumi said: "There is a radical conservative option available for voters," referring to EKRE.

"There's also a mainstream option, which concerns Isamaa. As for the new party, I wouldn't take them into account at this point," he went on.

The broader, current situation where parties have been trying to attract each other's members and voters is a normal part of the competitive process, Lumi added.

"Parties emerge and disappear, while some, due to historical reasons, have had the opportunity to better establish their profiles," Lumi said.

Former Riigikogu speaker and EKRE defector Henn Põlluaas said that ERK, which he is leader of, has reached the necessary 500 members required under electoral law to incorporate as a party, while numbers will continue to grow.

"About 50 [pending] applications are from people currently in another party who have expressed their intention to join us. They can become members once the party is officially registered," Põlluaas told AK.

EKRE is not the only party which those interested in joining ERK are leaving, he added.

EKRE MP and party board member Helle-Moonika Helme said that those leaving the party are being replaced by new members, noting that: "The other side is trying to create the impression that everyone is quitting EKRE and the numbers are falling. In actuality, once we process the new membership applications, things are looking quite good for us."

ERK recruiting ex-EKRE members is not the only instance of shifting party allegiances, AK reported. Parties on the left-liberal end of the spectrum, too, are seeing a similar phenomenon.

The tendency may even snowball in the run-up to the next local elections, in October 2025.

The most active migration has been from the Center Party to the Social Democrats (SDE), as evidenced by the wave of high profile defections in that direction earlier this year.

Center MP Vadim Belobrovtsev said that SDE have been actively recruiting his party's members, actions which he called "disgraceful."

"I have never seen such an approach whereby people are openly proud of their attempts to lure members from other parties," he told AK.

The latest switch was Vladimir Svet, a former Tallinn deputy mayor, who left Center to go straight into both SDE and a government ministerial post.

SDE's health minister, Riina Sikkut, said people joined the party primarily due to ideological reasons, adding: "Undoubtedly, we want to be in power and grow with people who share our worldview."

Other factors can also be taken into consideration than simply where a party lies on the left-right spectrum, and the Overton window is arguably a little wonky in Estonia.

For instance, while EKRE is a populist party, to a certain extent Center has been also – the two parties were in office together 2019-2021. Similarly, Center has a socially liberal strand to it, but also a more conservative one, making former Center leader Jüri Ratas' step of moving to Isamaa not a particularly counter-intuitive one.

Isamaa also has a more internationalist side to it as well as a tradition of laissez-faire economics, meaning moving to it from both Reform and SDE not an impossible step (Urve Palo is one example of the latter move).

Finally, a streak of pragmatism also runs through Estonian politics; sometimes politicians will move to the party giving them the best offer, while the party itself will be able to attract more votes if it snags a heavyweight.

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