In an interview with the "Välisilm" foreign affairs program, Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that there are currently no signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.

"This region has a habit of surprising the world, with wars breaking out unexpectedly, and while it's not entirely impossible that one day we might wake up to the surprising news of an agreement being reached, the Middle East is very complex. Relations there are very complicated, and sometimes enemies can become allies overnight. But right now, based on what we know, what our embassies are reporting and what the world's media is reporting, there are unfortunately no signs of de-escalation. In fact, it feels like the situation is getting worse. It seems like this spiral of conflict is not yet at its end, and things will likely get worse before they get better," he said.

Vseviov also suggested that Israel is likely awaiting a response from Iran for previous missile strikes, as Tehran's reaction has so far been subdued.

"I don't think the decision was to cancel a response but rather to give one when Israel least expects it. Understandably, Israel was expecting a move from Iran following its actions. Many countries, including the U.S., worked hard to deter a fully escalated response from Iran by sending additional military forces to the region. It seems to me that Iran didn't hit the stop button but the pause button, and it would be wiser to fear a potential escalation from Iran than to assume it won't happen," the secretary general explained.

In Vseviov's view, since the surprise attack by Hamas on October 7 last year, Israel appears to be firmly convinced that it must eliminate what it perceives as immediate security threats through military means.

"It all started in Gaza, and we are seeing the impacts of this worldwide. The situation along Israel's northern borders has been tense for a long time, practically the entire time Israel has been conducting military operations in Gaza. Now they are going after Hezbollah, which has close ties to Iran. To what extent these countries will come into direct conflict, we do not know," Vseviov said.

Vseviov: Estonia's foreign policy has not changed

Last week, Estonia supported a resolution at the UN General Assembly calling for an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories. According to several former foreign ministers and foreign policy experts, this signals a shift in Estonia's previous stance, as the country had typically either aligned with its allies or remained neutral on this issue.

However, Jonatan Vseviov stated that Estonia's policy has not changed. He explained that in recent years, Estonia has mobilized support among UN member states for resolutions backing Ukraine, using the argument that Russia is attacking not just Ukraine, but also international law, the UN Charter and the principle of territorial integrity. According to Vseviov, the majority of nations have supported this stance. In the case of Israel, Estonia faced a choice between being accused of double standards or voting in favor of the resolution while clarifying that Israel has the right to self-defense.

"Naturally, our opponents are trying to corner us. They cannot directly call for opposition to our position when over 140 countries supported us in past Ukraine resolutions, so now they accuse us of hypocrisy and double standards. The Middle East is a convenient tool for them in this regard. It's easy to claim that Europe only cares about what happens in Ukraine because it's in Europe, while ignoring conflicts in other parts of the world. And now, with the UN General Assembly requesting an opinion from the International Court of Justice, which has delivered its ruling, the resolution was drafted based on that – although in our view, the text is far from balanced. We found ourselves in a situation where we had to choose, as always, between a bad option and a very bad one. We had to decide whether to open ourselves to accusations of double standards and hypocrisy by abstaining, all while loudly demanding adherence to international law regarding Ukraine, or to vote in favor and explain our vote with balancing messages, such as Israel's security concerns and its right to self-defense," Vseviov added.

"We chose the latter path because the current situation demands consistency on questions of international law, and Estonia has been consistent before, and it is consistent now. The situation being presented to us by global developments is more complex than ever, particularly because while Russia attacks international law in Ukraine, all these other events we are discussing today are happening as well," he explained.

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