EDF: Ukrainian forces may be forced to withdraw from Pokrovsk by end of 2024

The Russian armed forces still hold the initiative on the front line and it is possible that the Ukrainians will be forced to leave Pokrovsk by the end of the year, said Lt. Col. Janek Kesselmann, second-in-command of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) intelligence center (Luurekeskus) on Friday.
"The tactical initiative remains in the hands of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Over the past seven days, there has been an average of 167 attacks per day along the entire frontline. Nearly 50 percent of these attacks have been concentrated by the opposing forces in the direction of Donetsk," Kesselmann said at the weekly briefing at the Ministry of Defense.
"In the direction of the city of Pokrovsk, which is at the center of these attacks, the Russian Federation has advanced approximately one to two kilometers over the past week. According to available information, the distance to the outskirts of Pokrovsk is roughly five to seven kilometers. This suggests that if the current intensity continues, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will likely be forced to withdraw from the city of Pokrovsk by the end of the year and take up positions slightly deeper within their territory," said Kesselmann.
Kesselmann said the capture of Vuhledar by Russian troops was the most significant event of the last week on the front.
"After Ukrainian forces withdrew from the city, Russian Federation troops have entered it. In our assessment, Ukrainian units have taken up suitable defensive positions approximately seven to eight kilometers to the north. As Ukraine has been forced to retreat from the city, we are likely to see the opposing forces consolidate their activities in this direction," he said.
Speaking about the Kursk region, Kesselmann said that it can be seen that Russia is concentrating units there and there is a possibility that during October Russian forces may try to launch a counteroffensive.
The lieutenant colonel noted that at the end of September, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that expanded the policy of allowing convicted criminals and those in pre-trial proceedings to enter the military.
"The criminogenic contingent in the Russian armed forces is growing. Apparently, this is a continuing trend," he said.
Kesselmann said Russia still has problems with recruitment.
"This is reflected in the fact that Russia has once again increased its one-time recruitment bonuses. Over five months, the bonuses have risen from €5,000 to €20,000 [approximately]. In addition to this, the salary in the Russian armed forces is nearly 10 times higher than the median wage in small towns. This suggests that Russia likely lacks or is unable to assemble a large strategic resource capable of significant impact, but it continues to compensate for the losses it must endure due to Ukrainian actions," he told the media.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Helen Wright