While the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk oblast to the north has made good progress, Russian forces have been able to progress, more slowly, in the Donbas to the east, including in Vuhledar, which until recently had not been as commonly reported on as Zap, Luhansk and other towns in eastern Ukraine.

Speaking to ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Väli said: "The area around Vuhledar has been systematically taken."

"Glide bombs, relentless 'meat grinder' attacks, artillery fire, drone strikes and tactical group advances all played their part. At one point, Vuhledar got encircled. This began in early September, but within a month the situation had progressed to the point where the Ukrainians were forced to withdraw," Väli went on.

The Ukrainians themselves have acknowledged they lack both personnel and resources, but when outnumbered seven to one by the Russians, they had no choice but to quit the city.

"This scenario is somewhat similar to Avdiivka and battle sites like that," Väli went on.

"The Ukrainians are falling back, not because the Russians have pulled off some brilliant tactical move, but simply because they have the overwhelming numerical superiority," he added.

As for the mass frontal wave attacks, Väli noted said that these have proven themselves, to the Kremlin at least.

"It has been noted that these 'meat grinder' attacks are no longer mindless."

"A group will move forward, heavily supported by artillery and air cover, taking a certain area, of 50 to 100 meters, followed by the next group. The Russian mobilization machine has enough resources to continue these attacks endlessly," Väli explained of the tactic.

All this means that the war is essentially one of attrition and of resources, he added.

"Plus there's no denying that the Russian Federation currently has an abundance of both human resources and 'dumb' munitions, enabling the success of these attacks in waves," the EDF officer continued.

Vuhledar is like most other targets Russian forces see as strategically vital, a significant logistics hub.

Väli said: "It makes up a key terrain point which controls the surrounding areas. It is on high ground. A road runs from east to west there, and another from northeast to northwest. These had been important supply routes for Ukraine. From Vuhledar, they could also control the railway line which runs from Donetsk toward Crimea."

Väli went on to say that the next Russian direction of attack, to be opened after taking Vuhledar, lies to the north. This will also in his opinion affect the Pokrovsk area to the north.

"I believe this could impact the capabilities of Ukrainian units in the Pokrovsk direction. The Russian advance toward Pokrovsk may now move somewhat faster," Väli concluded

Vuhledar, Pokrovsk and other nearby Donbas cities of key strategic importance are Ukrainian, but the Russian Federation has since a September 2022 edict signed by Vladimir Putin claimed the region as its own. This has the effect of justifying the use of conscripts, including those mobilized on a mass scale that same month – since conscripts are only supposed to serve on Russian soil.

An interactive map of the Ukraine front lines is here.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!