Ministry plans to have 1,250 MW of dispatchable capacity by 2035
By 2035, Estonia is expected to have 750 megawatts worth of gas-fired power plants, with the remainder largely covered by cogeneration plants and the Auvere Power Plant. The latter is expected to operate on biomass and shale gas for an additional five years from that point, according to Jaanus Uiga, deputy secretary general at the Ministry of Climate.
Last week, in a forecast for dispatchable production capacity presented to the government, Minister of Climate Yoko Alender (Reform) outlined the Ministry of Climate's expectation that Estonia will have 1,250 megawatts of dispatchable power capacity by 2035.
"According to our forecast, this includes 750 megawatts from gas-fired power plants, 150 megawatts from biomass cogeneration plants, 78 megawatts from plants burning shale oil gas and the 270-megawatt Auvere Power Plant," Alender said.
The gas power plant forecast also includes the current tender by Elering, which aims to secure up to 500 megawatts of production and storage capacity from the market. This tender seeks dispatchable capacity, likely to be provided by gas plants.
Deputy Secretary General Jaanus Uiga added that the ministry's 750-megawatt forecast includes the Kiisa emergency reserve power plant, which has a total capacity of 250 megawatts.
"If we obtain less than 500 megawatts of new production capacity from Elering's frequency reserve tender, we will need to implement additional measures to ensure the missing capacity is developed," Uiga noted.
More than a fifth of the forecasted capacity is expected to come from Eesti Energia's Auvere Power Plant, though recent breakdowns have raised questions about its reliability.
"We currently assume that the Auvere oil shale power plant will be operational in 2035 and can continue running on biomass and shale gas until 2040," Uiga said.
Direct combustion of oil shale for electricity production in Estonia is set to end in 2035. "If new information arises regarding the plant's capability or operational plans, we will incorporate it and adjust our activities accordingly," Uiga added.
The current expectations from the state, as owner, mandate that Eesti Energia maintain a dispatchable electricity production capacity of at least 1,000 megawatts until the end of 2026. The Ministry of Climate is currently developing a plan for what happens beyond that date, Uiga stated.
Alender also noted that until new dispatchable capacities are established, a sufficient volume of oil shale power plants needs to be retained. "We are working on a support measure aimed at implementing this by 2026," she said.
"The Ministry of Climate is developing a reserve mechanism to ensure the necessary level of dispatchable capacity even after the owner's expectations end, ideally by 2026. We plan to initiate consultations on the initial draft of this proposal soon," Uiga explained.
Regarding biomass cogeneration plants, Uiga noted that Estonia already had 150 megawatts of such capacity as of last year, and maintaining this level is expected.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski