In recent weeks, public debate has once again become heated over what should be done about the voting rights of permanent residents in Estonia, particularly those who are citizens of Russia and Belarus, as well as stateless individuals.

Supporters of amending the Constitution argue that the voting rights of Russian and Belarusian citizens, as well as stateless individuals, should be restricted primarily because their attitudes pose a threat to Estonia's security.

Coincidentally, the Riigikogu National Defense Committee recently reviewed an annual public opinion survey commissioned by the Ministry of Defense, which maps out Estonian residents' attitudes toward national defense issues. Following discussions within the committee, I requested additional analysis from the survey's conductor, Eesti Uuringukeskus, specifically focusing on the responses of Estonian citizens alone.

This interest in the opinions of Estonian citizens specifically was not related to the current debate over voting rights. It stemmed from a comment by the committee's deputy chair, Leo Kunnas, who noted that when we speak about national defense, we are primarily referring to citizens. According to the Constitution, only citizens are obliged to participate in national defense (Constitution §124). The Defense Forces Service Act states that it is the duty of Estonian citizens to participate in national defense.

Since public opinion surveys reveal significant differences in the attitudes of various ethnic groups regarding national defense issues, the report presented to the National Defense Committee allows for a comparison between the attitudes of all non-Estonians (primarily ethnic Russians) and non-Estonian citizens on key issues of national defense and security.

To be candid, one might have assumed – or at least hoped – that the attitudes of non-Estonians with Estonian citizenship would more closely align with those of ethnic Estonians. Unfortunately, this is not the case. The true security divide is not based on citizenship; it is distinctly along ethnic lines.

According to the survey, a majority – 89 percent – of ethnic Estonians believe Estonia should mount an armed resistance in the event of a military attack. However, one-fifth of respondents from other ethnic backgrounds oppose armed resistance. This proportion is identical among non-Estonian citizens; there is no difference based on whether a non-Estonian holds Estonian citizenship or not.

Nearly three-quarters of Estonians are willing to contribute to defense efforts to the best of their abilities and skills. Among non-Estonians, less than half are willing to contribute, and this level of willingness remains equally low among non-Estonian citizens. In other words, the willingness to fight for one's homeland is low among non-Estonians, regardless of the color of their passport.

In the event of a military attack, 41 percent of Estonians indicated they would participate in armed defense, whereas this figure is twice as low among non-Estonian citizens. Additionally, non-Estonian citizens are twice as likely as Estonians to attempt to leave the country in such a scenario.

Three-fifths of Estonians believe that Estonia could defend itself until additional support from allies arrives. Among non-Estonians, only one-third share this belief, with no difference whether we consider all non-Estonians or only citizens.

Half of Estonians believe that defense spending should be increased, while a third support maintaining it at the current level. In contrast, over half of non-Estonians favor reducing defense spending, with support for cuts even higher among non-Estonian citizens than among non-Estonians overall.

A striking 94 percent of Estonians support Estonia's NATO membership, with only 4 percent opposed. Among respondents of other ethnic backgrounds, a third oppose NATO membership, and one-sixth are undecided. Once again, citizenship status does not impact these views.

Only 4 percent of Estonians – a negligible minority – believe that NATO would not come to Estonia's aid in the event of a military threat. However, a quarter of non-Estonians doubt that NATO allies would assist, echoing a long-standing narrative of Kremlin propaganda.

What conclusions can be drawn from these findings?

When it comes to public opinion on national defense issues, it is, unfortunately, not citizenship but ethnicity/nationality that serves as the decisive factor.

The cornerstone of Estonia's security policy is a clear readiness for independent resistance and strong allied relationships. The vast majority of Estonians share these values, but a significant portion of non-Estonians, unfortunately, do not.

Some may interpret this data as a justification for revoking voting rights. If implemented, this decision would reduce the number of participating voters by over 50,000 (in local elections – ed.), predominantly Russian-speaking voters, whose views on national defense often differ markedly from the core principles of Estonia's security policy.

Others might interpret the data to mean the opposite – that addressing voting rights for non-citizens targets the wrong issue. Many citizens themselves do not share Estonia's values, suggesting that efforts should instead focus on bringing all people in Estonia into a shared value space. Excluding a substantial portion of the population from domestic politics would likely only exacerbate their isolation and make them more susceptible to Russian narratives.

Regardless of whether voting rights are retained or revoked, we must understand that the ethnic divide in security matters is a serious issue that needs addressing.

Fortunately, significant steps have already been taken, such as introducing Estonian-language national defense education in all schools. The National Defense Committee has also engaged in discussions to enhance the country's strategic communication readiness. However, the persistent divide in attitudes between Estonians and non-Estonians also shows that current efforts have not been sufficient.

No matter how the voting rights issue is ultimately resolved, we must seriously consider how to bring Russian-speaking residents of Estonia into alignment with our security-related values.

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