The BLRT group is one of the largest industrial companies in the Baltics with nearly 4,000 employees. Roman Vinartšuk, advisor to the group's board, told "Aktuaalne kaamera" the situation in heavy industry is difficult and the number of orders is declining.

Shipbuilding has still not recovered from the coronavirus crisis. Ship repairs are slightly better, but not great. The company has three repair facilities in Estonia, Lithuania and Finland.

"[In Tallinn] We just acquired a new dock, and opened it in the summer. It has been booked for a few months. But the ship repair yards in Klaipeda [Lithuania] and Finland also suffer from some problems," Vinartšuk said.

"There are fewer orders and less work in different companies. At the same time, inflation and wages are rising and energy prices are unstable. All this is affecting our business. The security situation is also contributing," he added.

The manufacturing industry has been in decline since April 2024. The drop from the peak is 22 percent. This means that production volumes are similar to five or six years ago.

In September, the on-year decline was 1.5 percent – a smaller dip than in previous months. But sectors are recovering unevenly. The timber industry saw an 11 percent decline, for example.

Wooden houses were one of the stars of the Estonian economy in good times, but the downturn in the Scandinavian economy had a big impact.

"In our case, it is quite drastic. While last year 90 percent of our turnover came from Scandinavia, this year the Scandinavian share is about a third, and the reduction in turnover is more than double," explained Matek CEO Sven Mats.

Matek employed 250 people last year, but now that number has fallen to 80. One production unit has already closed. The company has now shifted its focus.

"We've been working with Germany for five years and we have got to the point where we have been able to grow our volumes quite normally every year, but clearly it has not been able to replicate the volumes that have come from Scandinavia. And also in Germany, the economy has gone down and the volume of new builds has fallen," Mats said.

The Bank of Estonia believes the worst is over.

"This picture is somewhat mixed, but it really does look like a major downturn is behind us. This does not mean, of course, that the situation is in any way rosy. We are still talking about production volumes, which are comparable to five years ago. So the situation is certainly not too good for companies," said Bank of Estonia Economist Rasmus Kattai.

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