Transmissions systems operator Elering has given its assurance that the absence of Estlink 2 does not threaten electricity security of supply, and that supply should withstand even any simultaneous failure of Estlink 1 – itself offline for much of 2024.

As repairs to Estlink 2 are expected to take months, Estonia is to have to rely more heavily on its domestic electricity producers for the rest of this winter and spring.

The 650-MW Estlink 2 connection is out of service for repairs, with only Estlink 1 (rated at 350 MW) remaining for importing electricty.

The repairs to Estlink 2 are expected to take seven months.

According to state-owned generator Eesti Energia, all power plants under their purview are operational, to a total production capacity of 1,165 MW.

Eesti Energia subsidiary Enefit Power's total production capacity on its own exceeds 1,100 MW, the company says.

Estonia's energy production remains heavily reliant on oil shale electricity, especially in conditions where there is little wind or solar power, ie. much of winter.

For example, during cold winter weather, of which there has been little so far this winter, peak electricity consumption in Estonia exceeds 1,500 MW, ie. more than Enefit Power on its own can provide. Nevertheless Lauri Karp, Enefit Power CEO, told ERR that their entire production arsenal, located in Ida-Viru County, is operational.

Karp said: "Enefit Power generally does not plan repairs or maintenance during the colder winter months, ie. January and February," Karp said, adding that

No units are scheduled for repairs or maintenance in the coming months, he added.

The Baltic power plant's (Balti Elektrijaam) 11th bloc is market-ready, he added, with only the one boiler, which due to boiler repairs is only giving 65 MW of the 192-MW regular capacity.

For most of December, Enefit Power's active units were the Auvere power plant and the Estonia power plant's (Eesti Elektrijaam) 5th bloc, operational for a total of 16 days during that month.

The 5th unit was worked to utilize shale gas and produce internal steam, at a time of low price conditions.

Baltic power plant's 11th bloc, plus the 8th unit of the Eesti station were operational for about 10 days each, while older units were only on the market for a few hours in the last month of 2024.

December's average price on the Nord Pool exchange, Estonia region, stood at €84 per Mwh, while Enefit Power's plants had limited market access due to low electricity prices.

In 2024 as a while, January saw the highest electricity price, averaging €126.5 per MWh, followed by a fall for the next three months, in February to €75.5, March to €68, and April to €60 per MWh.

April represented the trough of price levels last year, however.

Karp said that weather conditions, particularly as they relate to wind and temperature, will exert a greater impact on electricity prices than the absence of Estlink 2 in any case.

Wind farms in the Baltic States, particularly the Sopi-Tootsi wind farm in Pärnu County in the southwest of the country, will it is reported exert a downward influence on electricity prices only during periods of windy weather; cold weather will bring higher prices, on the other hand.

In spring this year, solar energy and river water levels are also expected to affect prices, with the high-water level melt season reducing prices thanks to hydroelectric production in Latvia.

The Estlink 2 repairs will continue to influence electricity prices through to summer, hiking them by as much as a forecast €42 per Mwh in the month of July.

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