Since EstLink 2 was cut almost a week ago, questions have arisen in the media about what the government knew and when, and how Estonia would cope if a similar situation arose in its waters. ERR outlines the events of December 25 and 26 below.

The view from the Finnish side can be read here (in Estonian).

At 2 p.m. on December 25, Christmas Day, Estonia's system operator Elering published a press release saying the undersea Estlink 2 cable running between Finland and Estonia had failed at 12:26 p.m. The reason for the outage was unknown. Elering and its Finnish counterpart Fingrid were identifying the cause and location of the fault, the statement said.

By that time, the Estonia Navy, which monitors ship movements in Estonia's waters, was also aware of the situation. From the start, there was a suspicion that the fault may not be entirely random. Several cables had already been broken by vessels in the Baltic Sea this year, and the Balticconnector pipeline before that in 2023.

In both Finland and Estonia information began circulating around government agencies.

Within the first hour of the outage notification, both Elering and the Navy issued reports which led to the "mechanism" for such events being set in motion, ERR was told.

But clarity was still needed about the situation on the seabed of the Gulf of Finland and what had happened. EstlLink 2 was out of action for most of 2024 due repair work caused by an internal cable short circuiting.

Estonian and Finnish agencies continuously exchanged information throughout this time, the Government Office told ERR. It issued three official reports on the situation over Christmas Day.

Given the Navy's initial assessment of sabotage, the prime minister and Commander of the Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Andrus Merilo were the first to be notified, following protocol. Other ministers received an overview of the situation later.

Due the holidays, many key individuals were not in Tallinn at the time, includling the prime minister. When ERR called Minister of Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE) around 4:30 p.m. he was in Võru in south Estonia.

Läänemets said little information was known. "Until the site is inspected and it is determined what has happened — whether it is some kind of fault caused by the cable, natural conditions, or human interference — no one can say anything definitive," he said.

However, more information had already surfaced.

PM told of sabotage suspicion within an hour

Michal was told during the initial briefing that the incident may have been a deliberate not accident act. The Navy's view suggest intentional destruction and possible sabotage. Michal was told by the State Situation Center (Riigi situatsioonikeskus/ –SITKE).

The Estonian Navy had already conducted a closer examination of events near Estlink 2 and identified a vessel whose movements raised suspicions. A patrol vessel was sent out, but challenging conditions at sea — thick fog and increasingly stormy weather — made gathering precise information difficult.

By this time it was known that the suspicious vessel – an oil tanker named Eagle S identified as part of the Russian shadow fleet – was located in Finnish waters. The Finns had sent a patrol vessel to monitor the tanker.

From Wednesday afternoon onward, information was shared continuously between the Estonian and Finnish government offices, border guards, agencies, and navies.

At 4 p.m., Michal and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo held their first direct conversation about the incident.

Both countries coordinated a notification to the 10 member states in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), the Nordics, Baltics, UK and the Netherlands that was sent on Wednesday afternoon.

Michal made the decision around 8 p.m. on Wednesday, and the meeting was scheduled for 4 p.m. on Thursday. By that time, all ministers were aware of the situation and the possibility of sabotage.

A central crisis headquarters was not set up in Estonia; instead, information was exchanged between agencies. The government itself acted as the crisis headquarters, officials told ERR.

Thank you, @PetteriOrpo, for the call and our excellent cooperation in recent days.

Glad that we managed to act decisively and stop the suspected vessel for further investigation.

We need to step up our bilateral, NB8, EU and NATO cooperation to keep our critical cables secure.

— Kristen Michal (@KristenMichalPM) December 26, 2024

On Thursday, the government received an overview of the situation. They also determined the next steps to be taken.

During the session, the government made three decisions and assigned tasks to three ministries.

The Ministry of Defense was tasked with increasing the presence of ships in the EstLink 1 area in cooperation with Finnish authorities, and identifying the location of the damage to several communication cables that were also broken on December 25. Additionally, the ministry was instructed to request allied support to strengthen the protection of undersea infrastructure.

The Ministry of Justice was assigned to lead an analysis of maritime law implementation and to draft proposals for amendments to the Penal Code to enhance the protection of critical infrastructure.

The Ministry of Climate was tasked with analyzing the direct and indirect costs of the EstLink 2 outage and exploring, in collaboration with other ministries, additional measures to strengthen physical and cyber security for energy infrastructure.

After the session, Michal said he and other ministers had been in contact with their counterparts in neighboring countries. Active communication and information exchange were ongoing within the European Union and NATO.

Following the government meeting, around 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) and the Defense Forces initiated operations. Early on Friday (December 27), the patrol vessel Raju was deployed to protect EstLink 1, while the vessel Kindral Kurvits was sent to investigate one of the damaged communication cables.

On Thursday evening, Michal spoke with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Defense Forces contacted NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Belgium.

Finns took control of the tanker

The tanker Eagle S, suspected of damaging Estlink 2, departed from Russia's Ust-Luga port on the early morning of December 25 at 4:25 a.m. Estonian time, according to data from the Marine Traffic website.

The vessel, sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands located in the South Pacific Ocean was carrying 35,000 tons of unleaded gasoline.

By around 10:30 a.m., Eagle S reached international waters. At noon, the tanker passed over the location of Estlink 2. The connection abruptly stopped at 12:26 p.m.

After passing over the Estlink 2 cable, the tanker turned 180 degrees and traveled half a kilometer back. At 2:20 p.m., the ship turned westward again and resumed its original route.

The Finnish Border Guard's patrol vessel Turva noticed that Eagle S's anchors were not in their expected positions and contacted the tanker's crew at 6:30 p.m.

Around 7 p.m., the Turva reached Eagle S on the western side of Helsinki.

Authorities then visually confirmed their suspicions: the ship's second anchor had been lowered into the sea.

The Turva escorted the tanker into Finnish territorial waters near Porkkala.

Overnight between Wednesday and Thursday, at approximately 12:30 a.m., the Finnish Defense Forces, the police's Karhu unit, and the Coast Guard's rapid response team took control of the tanker.

The Finnish government detained the Eagle S because, in addition to damaging the Estlink 2 undersea cable, it was likely to target the Estlink 1 electricity line and the Balticconnector gas pipeline.

Later, it was revealed that Eagle S had managed to damage up to four data cables in addition to Estlink 2.

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