Expert: Russia's shadow fleet could consist of thousands of vessels
Ulla Pirita Tapaninen, a professor at Tallinn University of Technology's (TalTech) Estonian Maritime Academy, gave an interview to Finland's public broadcaster Yle, stating that Russia's shadow fleet may consist of thousands of vessels.
Ships classified as part of Russia's shadow fleet are used to bypass the Western-imposed oil price cap. These vessels enable Russia to export oil at prices exceeding the $60-per-barrel limit set by the West.
Professor Tapaninen stated that current sanctions against the shadow fleet are insufficient and need to be tightened. She emphasized that the existing price cap is ineffective in practice, as Russia has managed to circumvent it and sell oil at higher prices.
According to Tapaninen, 95 percent of Russia's oil exports are sold at elevated prices, facilitated by the shadow fleet.
Western nations are attempting to address this issue by increasing sanctions against Moscow. Last weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also called for new European sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet, which continues to transport Russian crude oil and oil products despite embargoes.
As of December, 80 vessels involved in Russian oil transport were on the EU's sanctions list. However, Tapaninen pointed out that these 80 ships might represent just the tip of the iceberg. She suggested there could be hundreds of such vessels, with some estimates placing the number as high as 3,000, according to Yle.
The shadow fleet not only helps Russia evade sanctions but also funds its military activities in Ukraine. The European People's Party (EPP), the center-right bloc in the European Parliament, estimates that Russia earns at least $12 billion per month from crude oil exports. The shadow fleet also poses significant environmental risks.
Since the war began, China and India have significantly increased their imports of Russian crude oil. The farther the oil needs to be transported, the greater the demand for tankers.
"This led to a situation where oil tankers were no longer scrapped and the average age of vessels in the shadow fleet increased because these ships were needed," Tapaninen explained.
She highlighted that laws and international regulations have not kept pace with the challenges posed by the shadow fleet. Current maritime laws were established when undersea cables and critical infrastructure in international waters were not yet a concern.
Tapaninen noted that the principle of freedom on the high seas is a centuries-old tradition in maritime law.
"Of course, we could try to establish international agreements, but Russia isn't currently engaging in such efforts," she remarked.
After damage to an undersea power cable between Estonia and Finland was detected Wednesday, December 25, Finnish authorities detained the oil tanker Eagle S, which was then escorted to the port of Porkkala. Finnish authorities seized the ship and Tapaninen underscored the importance of the seizure occurring in Finnish territorial waters, rather than international waters. The vessel is now anchored near Porkkala, where Finnish authorities are investigating it.
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Editor: Karl Kivil, Marcus Turovski
Source: Yle