In his Monday speech, Donald Trump largely overlooked Europe, European security issues and alliances. According to Raimond Kaljulaid, it is difficult to say whether this reflects the preferences of Trump's team or their assessment that other topics are more important to Trump's voters.

"I feel that one thing we must understand is that, for the next four years, the era of a special relationship between the United States and Europe, whether temporarily or permanently — it's impossible to say — will essentially not exist. It seems to me that, in Trump's and his close advisors' view, Europe is just one region among others in the world," Kaljulaid said.

Kaljulaid noted that while trade relations and defense cooperation between Europe and the U.S. will certainly continue, the closer communication that has characterized previous decades will disappear.

"It seems to me that Europe does not hold any sort of priority status in Trump's White House, so to speak. European leaders have no reason to hope for closer ties with the U.S. president, as they have enjoyed in past decades," he remarked.

"It appears that the United States is interested in developing relations across various regions of the world and Europe will not receive preferential treatment," Kaljulaid added.

Urmas Reinsalu, member of the Riigikogu Foreign Affairs Committee and leader of Isamaa, did not entirely agree with Kaljulaid's assessment. He noted that historically, the U.S. has maintained a special relationship with one European country — namely, the United Kingdom.

"However, I would put it this way: there will certainly be significantly more conflicts based on differing values. For example, the European Digital Services Directive and issues of platform censorship are areas where friction will increase. That said, it is in Estonia's interest for this relationship to remain as strong as possible, because we have no alternative to the U.S.'s contribution to collective defense and we must understand this very clearly," Reinsalu stated.

Reinsalu emphasized that Estonia must take a proactive approach by proposing areas of cooperation and shared priorities to the new U.S. administration.

"Estonia must actively engage with the United States, offering new initiatives and reflecting positions that align with U.S. strategic expectations. We must identify topics important to the new U.S. administration in order to develop active cooperation," he said.

Laats: Economy will be Trump's tool

Chair of the Center Party parliamentary group, Lauri Laats, told ERR that Donald Trump is fundamentally an economic-minded individual who intends to use the economy as a tool in foreign relations.

"Certainly, his primary tool will be the economy — its regulation, various tariffs and sanctions. I believe he will use the same approach toward both Europe and China. The question is what he aims to achieve with it. These are different objectives — on the one hand, to rein in China, and on the other, to protect his own economy," Laats said.

According to Laats, another key factor is Trump's decision to put the brakes on the green transition and increase the exploitation of natural resources.

"The U.S. dictates the direction the global economy takes," Laats remarked.

Reinsalu also pointed out that, like many trends originating in the U.S., Trump's shift in climate policy will eventually reach Europe.

"The spread of these trends in economic competition is slow, but as a small country, we must sense the shifts in the focal points of megatrends. I believe this will lead Europe to rethink its entire green policy. For example, the Estonian government's approach of building its entire energy economy around renewable electricity as the central goal for 2035 needs a fundamental re-evaluation — regardless of whether the trend changes in the U.S. or not," Reinsalu said.

Regarding climate policy, Kaljulaid emphasized the distinction between decisions made by the federal government and those implemented at the state level.

"In his speech, Trump essentially declared the end and reversal of green transition policies, opting instead for the expansion and development of the fossil fuel sector. However, the U.S. is such a large country that individual states wield significant political influence. For this reason, certain climate policies will undoubtedly continue in the U.S. in a manner similar to what we see today," Kaljulaid explained.

Reinsalu: Leaving opponents guessing Trump's signature move

Commenting on the decisions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, Kaljulaid noted that these moves reinforce the overall impression that Trump's administration is unflinching when it comes to defending U.S. interests.

"If they determine that an agreement, organization or commitments the U.S. has undertaken no longer serve the interests of the United States or its people, they will sever those ties without hesitation or regret. Trump is also characterized by his desire to be respected among leaders at his level and to maintain good personal relationships with other leaders. His approach is distinct, deeply rooted in his background in New York's real estate business. He is not particularly troubled by other leaders being upset or disappointed by his decisions," Kaljulaid explained.

Reinsalu, meanwhile, advised against alarm over the fact that Trump barely mentioned Ukraine in his speech, given the president's unique style.

"Of course, if we had written that speech, there would have been different emphases, especially regarding Russia and Ukraine. However, I see this as a positive in the sense that Trump's hallmark is sowing doubt in his opponents — those he intends to pressure into agreements. I believe we are currently in a preparatory phase where the new administration is likely gathering leverage to strengthen its position in pressuring Russia," Reinsalu said.

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