Russia's financing of the war in Ukraine relies heavily on its energy revenues, especially those from oil and natural gas. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would ask Saudi Arabia and the oil cartel OPEC to bring down prices. Lower oil prices would, according to Trump, put an immediate end to the war in Ukraine.

"Any drop in oil prices will affect the revenues of the Russian Federation. There have been different calculations here, whether it's 20, or whether it's 40 U.S. dollars a barrel. But we know that the Russian Federation itself is counting on around 60, 65, or 70 dollars a barrel, which they are quite happy with. So anything that we can bring below that $60 will certainly put significant pressure on them," said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

On Friday, oil prices on the world market were at $76 USD a barrel. Alan Vaht, a board member of Estonian fuel trader Terminal, said the future of the oil market depends on how much Russian oil can be removed from the world market and how successfully OPEC is able to meet demands.

"The question is whether the market is in deficit or in surplus. If Russia's oil really runs out and OPEC can't bring in enough oil to replace it, we'll see very high oil prices. And vice versa, if the new sanctions from January 10 do not take a lot of oil off the market, and do not limit Russian oil exports, while at the same time OPEC is able to replace oil, bring new supplies to the market, then we will see a collapse in fuel prices," he explained.

Energy expert Raivo Vare said that Trump, with the OPEC cartel, has much better leverage to influence the process than his predecessor Joe Biden.

"Otherwise OPEC won't go along with it, something has to be given in return. I think both military, or security policy and also some kind of economic cooperation or assistance," Vare said.

Before the all-out war against Ukraine, Russia was earning €650 million a day from oil and fuel exports, but that has now fallen to less than €500 million.

"Oil exports have already fallen by 27 percent compared to the pre-invasion period. In other words oil volumes have fallen, but oil revenues have fallen by less. So here it is a question of how much more of Russia's oil can be kept away," said Vaht.

Vare added that Russia will not be affected by the price drop before the summer.

"The accumulated balance and reserves, along with the overall ability to still put something together within the Russian economy, gives them up to a year and a half of breathing room. But let's say it's more or less within that number of years. So even in that case, Russia will not have a really big need to enter into a peace agreement before the summer," Vare said.

Col. Kiviselg added that a Russian retaliation to the fall in oil prices cannot be ruled out. Russia will also continue to try to evade sanctions through the use of its so-called "shadow" fleet.

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