The opposition Center Party, which also obtained information from SALK ahead of the election, also denies that correlation.

On Thursday, it was reported that all four parties had received a directive from the Political Party Financing Surveillance Committee (ERJK) to return €92,572 in prohibited donations.

The overriding implication is that SALK's activities swung the elections in a liberal direction to the extent that a tripartite coalition with an unusually large majority of, at the time, 60 seats at the 101-seat Riigikogu, was able to enter into office the following month.

Reform Party Secretary-General Timo Suslov said: "This is not a prohibited donation."

ERJK Chair Liisa Oviir, however, stated that SALK purchased and conducted surveys, analyzed their results, and made them available to the four parties free of charge.

Since competitor parties did not receive similar services from SALK, this constituted an illicit donation.

"And this quite clearly corresponds to what is prohibited under the Political Parties Act," Oviir added.

Parties: If we didn't order it, it can't be a service

Suslov stressed that the Reform Party had not ordered any services from SALK. "We did not invite them to our office asking them to provide us with survey services. If there was no order, then there can't be any service," Suslov said.

Center Party Secretary-General Anneli Ott said much the same. "If a person comes to talk about their work without us asking them to, can they later demand payment for that work from the person who listened?" Ott inquired.

SDE Secretary-General Priit Lomp suggested looking ahead to address the situation: "So that at some point we don't find ourselves in a situation where, three days before an election, a research organization's information package lands in someone's inbox, and only later it is claimed that it influenced the outcome."

The next elections in Estonia are in October this year, to the 79 municipalities.

After the elections, politicians were more open to talking

Oviir noted that SALK's input was not limited to a single information package or office meeting.

The ERJK investigation was prompted by an article that appeared in investigative weekly Eesti Ekspress a few months after the elections, in which politicians themselves provided detailed explanations about the SALK interface.

The directives the ERJK issued on Thursday are also interspersed with excerpts from that same article.

"SALK provided us with all the necessary data," Daniel Kõiv, Eesti 200's Tartu campaign manager, told Eesti Ekspress, outlining how he repeatedly requested new models online from SALK.

Kõiv said he visited the foundation's database several times a week.

SDE's Kaarel Oja said that he always had a link to the same database open and that that data was used in Tallinn to weigh key messaging priorities.

Kaja Kallas, then prime minister and Reform Party leader, now the EU's foreign policy chief, said SALK's research was used continuously and was seen as important for the party to understand which issues divided or united voters.

Andre Hanimägi, a former Center Party secretary-general who is now an SDE MP, told the committee himself that he had access to SALK's monthly surveys and that, at his request, SALK chief Tarmo Jüristo presented the data to the party's board.

"The Center Party offered to pay for the presentation, but the interlocutor declined," Hanimägi recalled.

Nevertheless, all four parties remain convinced that there is no case for calling this a prohibited donation, again since they did not order any services.

Oviir said that not soliciting something does not equate to not receiving it.

"If you go to the market to buy oranges and someone comes and offers you an apple, you then take the apple, put it in your pocket, and still buy the oranges, have you received an apple or not?" she said by analogy.

"Above all, donations from legal entities and the provision of services to a political party under conditions not available to others are prohibited," she went on.

Politicians say SALK's input was of no significant help

The parties, however, argue that they already had the "apples" proffered by SALK.

Ott said: "We certainly do not believe that we received any information that significantly — or even at all — enabled us to change our campaign strategy."

Lomp opined that if SALK's work did have any impact, this was very unevenly applied.

One party (Eesti 200) that engaged with the foundation won 14 parliamentary seats at the election two years ago, another (Reform) as many as 37, and a third, Lomp's own party, just nine. "In my opinion, this did not affect the party's overall result in any way," Lomp said.

Center won 16 seats at the election, a drop of 10 from its previous tally.

Suslov added that engaging with people always helps pre-elections but noted that the Reform Party interacted with many individuals and interest groups, with SALK not being particularly prominent among these.

SALK didn't even tell the party much that it did not already know, he added. "The data shared with us by SALK did not differ from what we already knew beforehand."

Kõiv said that Eesti 200 only used SALK's data in Tartu and did not rely on them in nationwide campaigning.

SALK chief Tarmo Jüristo said he still hopes that their work was of some use to the parties: "As it was something that I and several of my colleagues worked on tirelessly for months and months."

"We worked hard to achieve this outcome, for it to turn out as it did. Whether and how much it was beneficial, nobody knows, and that is not for us to judge," he went on.

ERJK devised its own formula

So far as the ERJK is concerned, the exact impact of SALK's work was not of primary importance, the watchdog said, as an apple is still an apple even if eating it leaves you hungry, to continue the analogy.

However, ERJK considered it crucial to quantify the financial value of the "apples" doled out to the parties.

On this, Oviir said: "It was partly based on the information provided by SALK itself, and largely on their own financial reports."

SALK told the ERJK that they spent €97,010 on the research which was then shared with the four parties.

To that sum were added labor costs, with the final total amounting to €115,715.

As SALK claimed that knowledge was not shared exclusively with the parties, the committee estimated that four-fifths of the expenditure, or €92,572, was directed at the parties.

Parties still considering contesting ERJK decision

All four parties have 30 days in which they can appeal the ERJK decision at the first-tier administrative court.

None of the politicians ERR spoke to would either confirm or deny if any legal action would be taken, though all said they were considering it.

Ott said: "The party has accounted for this claim in its budget, but how we proceed requires some discussion with other parties to see how they view it."

Suslov said although the Reform Party rejects the notion that it received a prohibited donation, the ERJK's decision must be carefully reviewed before the party makes any further decisions.

The Eesti 200 and SDE boards are due to discuss their next steps next week.

The Center Party will also discuss its next steps at the board level.

"We will discuss within our board whether we will pay and hope for equal treatment from ERJK for all political actors, or alternatively, challenge specific aspects of the decision," Ott said.

Liberals say conservatives should also be investigated

Another dimension is the existence of mirror-image organizations on the right, notably the Foundation for the Protection of Family and Tradition (SAPTK) and NGO the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

The latter, in particular, allegedly provides data to Isamaa, currently the highest-rated party, though in opposition; not only Eesti Ekspress but also business daily Äripäev have reported as much.

SDE's Lomp said that the decision on SALK should prompt the ERJK to look into Isamaa's activities too, while Suslov claimed that Isamaa and the Institute for Societal Studies share a common major sponsor, without naming names.

"There is no question of a service here; this is a direct donation through the Institute for Societal Studies," he added.

Eesti 200's Kõiv thinks the same, adding that the Isamaa case resembles even more of a prohibited donation than SALK's.

Contrasting the two, he said: "One involves the secret, behind-the-scenes sharing of data to influence and shape policies, while the other is a public and transparent process."

Oviir said the cases are different.

"In the SALK case, the recipients of the service confirmed via the media that yes, they constantly received data, they constantly monitored it, and adjusted their messaging accordingly," compared with Isamaa having always denied receiving any services for free.

SALK considering slightly different approach with the next elections

Jüristo said he could not be the judge of whether SALK's work constitutes a prohibited donation. However, he said the debates following the 2023 elections could shift expectations regarding how transparent political processes should be, he added.

Looking forward to this fall's local elections, Jüristo said: "As a foundation, our focus and goals have not changed in any way, but given today's decision, we will likely need to adapt to new information."

Broadly speaking, there are two options on this.

SALK could, in principle, charge political parties for its services; then, by definition, they could not constitute an illegal donation.

Suslov also stated that if the Reform Party were to order services again from SALK, contracts would need to be signed.

The other option would be for SALK to publicly share the results of more of its work with all registered political parties.

Jüristo said: "Even during the 2023 elections, we published a significant amount of data, analysis, and information which was accessible to all."

"This time round, we are considering publishing even more," he added, though noted that there would be some data that would not be universally published.

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