Expert: US cautious not to anger Russia but adding pressure behind the scenes

The United States has chosen a deliberate strategy of not overly provoking Russia publicly, while at the same time exerting stronger pressure on Moscow behind the scenes to bring an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine, security and political analyst Rainer Saks observed.
Talks between Russia and the United States continued throughout Monday in the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh. The discussions had actually begun on Sunday when U.S. and Ukrainian representatives met.
Ukraine's delegation was led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who stated on social media that the discussions were productive and focused, addressing key issues, including energy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also mentioned in his video address that the talks had been fruitful but stressed that pressure on Russia must continue, as it has not adhered to the proposed ceasefire.
"Last night, Russian drones killed three people in Kyiv, including a father and his five-year-old daughter. The day before, a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia claimed an entire family – a mother, father and daughter. My condolences to all their loved ones," Zelenskyy said.
Monday's talks were led on the Russian side by former diplomat Grigory Karasin, who currently chairs the Russian parliament's upper house foreign affairs committee, and Sergey Beseda, an adviser to the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB.
Among the key topics discussed was the control line between the two countries, as well as a separate issue — the Black Sea peace agreement, which is intended to ensure safe and unrestricted maritime navigation for both Ukrainian and Russian commercial vessels. This has raised concerns in Bulgaria and Romania.
According to Bloomberg, the United States is aiming to reach a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine before Easter — within less than a month.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had given U.S. President Donald Trump a very special and entirely personal gift, the details of which will not be disclosed. Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, previously stated that Putin had given Trump a portrait of himself.
In an interview with foreign affairs talk show "Välisilm," security expert Rainer Saks noted that serious negotiations have been taking place in recent days.
"There are two rounds: negotiations between the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations, followed by talks between the U.S. and Russian delegations and then another round of U.S.-Ukrainian discussions. This suggests that something very concrete is being negotiated, as practically no information has leaked about the substance of these discussions," he explained.
Saks pointed out that Putin has long wanted to reach an agreement regarding the war, but he aims to secure a political outcome that aligns with his interests.
"I believe he has had this intention to some extent for many years. However, the key issue is that any agreement must also ensure the achievement of a political goal. That is where the difficulty lies. Putin does not have a specific desire to continue the war just for the sake of war. His objective is to secure an outcome that benefits Russia from his perspective and that is what is currently being tested in these negotiations — whether it will succeed or not. But war itself is a form of pressure and both sides are trying to exert military pressure on each other," Saks explained.
Saks: US putting pressure on Russia covertly
Some insight into the ongoing negotiations can also be gleaned from an interview given by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, who recently held talks in Moscow. A few days ago, he spoke with former Fox News anchor and Kremlin-friendly commentator Tucker Carlson.
"Putin has immense respect for our president. And, you know, you saw what happened in the Oval Office between Zelenskyy and the president. And I mean, that kind of disrespectful attitude toward him (Donald Trump) is not a healthy way to build good relations," Witkoff said.
"This situation has been corrected. And that's really a good thing. It got fixed. And hopefully, we can turn this into just a misunderstanding and reach a peace agreement here," he added.
According to Witkoff, the U.S. wants both Russians and Ukrainians to be at least somewhat satisfied with the outcome.
"We want the Russians to be at least somewhat satisfied. We want the Ukrainians to be at least somewhat satisfied. We're talking to the Europeans. When I say I'm satisfied, I mean that I feel we've come out of this with a deal that everyone can live with," he said.
"And then, I think we've influenced Russia in a way no one thought possible. In our last conversation, they agreed to a ceasefire concerning energy infrastructure, meaning Russia will not target Ukraine's energy facilities and Ukraine will not target Russia's. This is something they've never discussed before. Now they have. They've also never before talked about reinstating a Black Sea moratorium on Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships and Russian attacks on Ukrainian ships," Witkoff explained.
He said the ultimate goal is a 30-day ceasefire, during which a permanent truce can be discussed.
"Russia has been making all sorts of positive statements about their willingness to consider these various aspects. And the day after President Putin spoke with the president, Zelenskyy also had a great conversation. And I think that suggests a certain level of flexibility in how they're thinking about ending this conflict. So, I don't want to sound like a perpetual optimist, but I am very, very optimistic that we can bring these two sides together. We've narrowed the issues so much," the special envoy stated.
According to Rainer Saks, this is a textbook example of an influence operation, where Russia has managed to get U.S. representatives to echo its own talking points. However, he believes the interview itself should not be taken too seriously, as it merely reflects the worldview of Witkoff and Carlson.
Saks noted that the U.S. has deliberately chosen a strategy of not provoking Russia too much publicly while exerting stronger pressure behind the scenes.
"I wouldn't take this too seriously in the sense that Witkoff does not shape strategy, and as we can see, he doesn't actually know much about the real substance of the negotiations. At the same time, he has been used to try and create a direct communication channel between the U.S. president and the Russian president, and in that regard, this is a complete failure," Saks said.
"But there are elements here that shouldn't be oversimplified to just Witkoff's level, because there are certainly more communication channels involved. Secondly, I still think the U.S. has consciously chosen this tactic of trying not to irritate Russia too much publicly. From time to time, they do so in a controlled manner, but I am quite sure that Russia is also being put under significant hidden pressure. It's not just about trying to appease them. Even Witkoff said that a fair agreement is needed that allows both sides to live with the outcome. So, despite his somewhat naive interview, he is not entirely one-sided in his approach," Saks added.
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Merili Nael, Marcus Turovski