The United States is reportedly preparing to reduce its military footprint in Europe, including cuts to fighter aircraft and naval assets, according to The New York Times and other media outlets.

Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said NATO defense planning would remain unchanged, though he acknowledged reports of a gradual U.S. shift away from Europe.

Other Estonian experts, however, warn the reductions could leave key gaps in capabilities.

According to Major General (ret.) Neeme Väli, the withdrawal of U.S. forces and military capabilities will certainly weaken Europe's defense posture, as it will take time to find replacements for the departing aircraft, ships, and ground forces.

"It has not come as a surprise to anyone. On May 22, a U.S. delegation visited NATO headquarters, met with policy directors, and briefed the allies. What has long been expected is happening, and U.S. steps are becoming more concrete over time," Väli said.

"My understanding is that the process is already underway. On June 2–3, a NATO force generation conference took place, where I would be very surprised if this issue was not discussed. General Grynkewich, who serves both as NATO's operations commander and the commander of U.S. forces in Europe, is aware of both sides, and planning processes are certainly already ongoing. Work is therefore already being done to adjust both troop presence and the corresponding operational plans."

Väli noted, that although the news is discussed in the NATO context, it also concerns forces stationed in Europe under bilateral agreements. There has already been media coverage of rotations in Poland and of U.S. forces in Lithuania.

The retired Major General said that U.S. units are already present in Estonia under bilateral agreements.

"So far, the comments from the [Estonian] Ministry of Defence have not been very specific. My understanding is that there is not yet full certainty about the future of these units."

Security expert Meelis Oidsalu said proposed cuts to aerial refueling tankers could have broad operational effects.

"If you look at the list, the most systemic impact may come from the removal of Boeing Stratotanker aircraft," he said. "That will affect training, that will affect operations, especially in NATO's border areas."

Minister: Ground forces are key

Oidsalu also pointed to reductions in maritime patrol aircraft, which he said are critical not only for surveillance but also for reconnaissance, early warning and anti-submarine warfare.

"In NATO's deterrence posture that we've been talking about, this move would mean a fairly significant hit to our deterrence capability," he added.

Pevkur said while he doesn't doubt there is truth to reported drawdown plans, he does not see major cause for concern, suggesting the U.S. shift reflects long-discussed strategic plans to reduce its footprint in Europe while maintaining NATO commitments.

He acknowledged that the biggest military challenge is always moving ground forces.

"So our message to the Americans has been that when looking at the implementability of European defense plans, and at how, what and when things need to be moved, ground force presence in Europe should definitely remain sufficient to keep [NATO] defense plans quickly executable," the defense minister said.

MP: Russia could see this as a chance

MP Raimond Kaljulaid (SDE), a member of the Riigikogu's National Defense Committee, warned that any gap in coordination during the transition period could increase regional risk, as Europe is still working to develop replacement capabilities.

"If coordination between allies does not work and those gaps remain, of course it would be an additional security risk for our region," Kaljulaid said, stressing that Russia could interpret any temporary weakening as a chance to test NATO readiness.

Riigikogu Foreign Affairs Committee chair, MP Marko Mihkelson (Reform) said that if we look at what is written in the United States' defense strategy, they have clearly stated that Europe's conventional defense must be carried by European countries.

"So right now, the most important issue for us — meaning the European allies — is that the United States carries out any redeployment of its forces in a thoughtful way, in coordination with its allies, and with sufficient time allocated, so that no strategically significant gaps emerge," Mihkelson noted.

The U.S. is expected to finalize its plans within the next month.

This article has been updated to add comments by Major General (ret.) Neeme Väli and Marko Mihkelson.

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