Analyst: Europe in for new period of economic growth, not new crisis
There is no new economic crisis on its way and Europe is in for a long period of economic growth, Ruta Arumäe, an economic analyst and professor at Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences (EUAS), said on Monday.
According to Arumäe, European economy is at the beginning of a new long-term growth cycle. "Historically, recovering from major crises takes a long time and it's only now that we can see permanent signs of the global cycle climbing out of the slump and embarking on a new wave of growth," she said in a press release.
The analyst said that the United States and Europe reacted to the crisis with different economic and monetary policy measures, which is why the U.S. cycle is significantly well ahead of that of Europe, which is only starting to display signs of recovery. "Therefore it may happen that Europe is not at the end of an economic cycle as many tend to believe, but at the beginning of new growth," she noted. "This would mean a long upward ride again."
She added that while there may be smaller cycles of decline within the long-term growth cycle, they would not be comparable in scale to the last economic crisis.
"This will provide more leeway for businesses and also governments to make incorrect decisions, as economic growth will leave many mistakes unnoticed at the beginning," commented the analyst. "But the possibility also exists to do things differently and ask oneself what can be done better this time."
Arumäe is a professor of economic theory at Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences (EUAS) in Tallinn. She has previously worked as a macro analyist for SEB Pank and SEB Investment Funds from 2003-2015, and served as an adviser to then-Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas in 2015.
Editor: Aili Vahtla