Associate professor of international relations at Tallinn University Matthew Crandall believes that Joe Biden will win the U.S. presidential elections this year, even though the polls also favored Hillary Clinton before Donald Trump won four years ago. However, many were likely afraid to admit they were planning to vote for Trump last time around, which is what confused things. The polls are more accurate this time, Crandall believes.
"I believe it is difficult to repeat that surprise. I believe people are no longer ashamed to admit they support Trump," Crandall told the "Välisilm" foreign affairs program in an interview.
"The first thing Washington Democrats will do after electing Sleepy Joe president is probably go to sleep," U.S. President Donald Trump said.
Asked whether Biden was too dry as a presidential candidate, Crandall said: "Biden is not an interesting candidate, but he is the opposite of Trump and that is what will bring the Democrats out. "A biscuit makes for a feast if you're hungry," he added.
According to Crandall, it is important to note that the Democrats are more united than usual and Biden has moved left to increase his supported base. At the same time, voter turnout has traditionally been low in USA, while Democratic supporters have been especially lazy.
"Voter turnout was a little low four years ago, which was the main reason Hillary Clinton lost," the docent explained.
Those who came out to vote for Obama did not turn up for Clinton in 2016.
"Biden's main goal is to convince the people who voted in 2008 and 2012 but not in 2016 that they need to come out again and vote. And I believe he will succeed in this," Crandall found.
Obama campaigning for Biden
Former President Barack Obama has gotten behind his former vice-president on the home stretch: "I have confidence in Joe Biden and Kamala Harris who have surrounded themselves with serious people, who know what they are doing and represent everyone, not just a select few, and I believe we can dig our way out of this hole."
Asked what gives him hope, Obama said: "Hope is not blind optimism. Hope does not ignore problems. Hope believes in difficult times that we can overcome and end up with a better world."
Obama appearing on stage did not leave Trump indifferent: "President Obama is campaigning for Sleepy Joe Biden. And I said: uh, is it good or bad? Tell me, is it good news or bad? Well, I think it's bad news. No, it is good! There was no one campaigning harder for Hillary Clinton than Obama. He was everywhere. He said I would not become president. Then I won. I believe that the only one who was even more miserable than Crooked Hillary that night was Barack Hussein Obama."
Hunter Biden's scandal not as influential as Hillary's
If in 2016, Clinton's rating suffered from the emails scandal, couldn't Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden's shady businesses in Ukraine hurt his chances now? Crandall finds that Clinton's scandal was far bigger and that people today are most interested in managing the coronavirus crisis.
People are buying up weapons.
"That is rather a case of freedom from the state as opposed to the state guaranteeing freedoms. It is a legacy from our history. We have a gun for each person in the USA, which is a very high number. And I believe that it is only natural when people panic in a crisis, any kind of crisis. Some buy too much food or stockpiles, others go out and buy a gun. There was a race for guns before Obama was elected. People were afraid there would be new rules, new legislation that could make it more difficult to obtain guns. There might also be a fear of things getting out of hand in the coronavirus crisis," Crandall said.
The coronavirus has killed over 221,000 people in USA. Trump survived but has allegedly hurt his rating by exhibiting arrogance toward COVID-19.
"Someone who is responsible for so many deaths shouldn't remain president of the United States," Joe Biden finds.
Michigan Republicans do not blame Trump
Most of the 50 states clearly support either Trump or Biden. Michigan is one place where Trump supporters need to brace for as loss.
"You know, I think that most people understand we cannot blame the president for what has happened after COVID-19 because any other president would have found themselves in the same situation where even scientists do not know what is going to happen next or what should be their recommendation," Marian Sheridan, a Trump supporter from Michigan, said.
"I believe that these are important elections, everyone knows that. These are perhaps one of the most important elections we've had, if not the most important during my lifetime. I believe we stand at a crossroads. We will pick one of two paths. And I want to retain our current course. Otherwise, we will be heading for globalist rule," Gerry Clixby, another Michigan Trump supporter, believes.
Trump will not disappear
Asked what would happen if Trump where to lose the election and the Supreme Court confirm that he has lost, Crandall believes that unlike previous presidents, Trump would not disappear from the stage.
"It is a very interesting question. Most presidents have opted for a low profile. Looking at how Obama has lived, how little he has interfered and has only now started to campaign more actively. George Bush has also kept a low profile and his nose out of politics. But that is not characteristic of Donald Trump. He wants attention, which is why I believe he would remain very active and that is interesting. I want to see what is going to happen," Crandall said.
Editor: Marcus Turovski