Norstat poll: Kallas scandal yet to have impact on Reform Party ratings

Reform Party pre-election campaign image.
Reform Party pre-election campaign image. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

According to the latest Norstat poll, there have been no major changes in party support over the past week. This means the scandal over Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' (Reform) husband's Russian business links has not yet had an impact on the Reform Party's ratings.

The results of the most recent poll conducted by NGO Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat put support for the Reform Party at 24.9 percent. The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) is at 23.6 percent, while the Center Party has the backing of 17.9 percent of those eligible to vote.

This means the decline in support for Reform over the last four weeks has now come to a halt, with the prime minister's party holding a 1.3 percentage point lead over second place EKRE.

EKRE is 4.4 percentage points above the Center Party, which remains the third most popular party in the ratings.

The top three are followed by the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 10.3 percent support, Isamaa (10.2 percent) and Eesti 200 (8.4 percent).

The latest aggregate results cover the period from July 31 to August 28, during which a total of 4,000 eligible Estonian citizens were polled.

Norstat has not yet published the separate results for the last week included in this aggregated data (August 21-28) on its website.

Overall, the coalition parties (Reform, SDE, Eesti 200) have the support of 43.6 of survey respondents. 51.7 percent support the opposition parties (EKRE, Isamaa, Center)

The maximum margin of error depends on the relative size of the largest group. As this was the Reform Party, the margin of error for the poll comes to +/- 1.64 percent.

The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)

The two tables show recent weeks' results for the aggregated four weeks, followed by the weekly results.'


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Editor: Michael Cole

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