Opposition party Isamaa has continued to see its support grow, now reaching a high for the past four-and-a-half years, according to one recent poll. Meanwhile, coalition party Eesti 200's support is at a near four-year low, the same poll finds.
The survey, conducted by Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found a total of 42.6 percent of respondents supported one of the three coalition parties, Reform, Eesti 200 or the Social Democrats (SDE), while 52.7 percent pledged their support for one of the three opposition parties – the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), the Center Party or Isamaa.
the latest poll, over EKRE, which picked up 23.2 percent of support.
By party, Reform is still most-supported according to Norstat, at 25.9 percent.
Center finished third, with 16.3 percent.
Isamaa's rating has risen by 3.4 percentage points over the past two weeks, to 13.2 percent, its highest rating since Norstat started conducting its weekly survey in their current format, in early 2019.
The party obtained a new leader in former foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu, just before mid-summer.
SDE (10 percent) is followed by Eesti 200 (6.7 percent) in the latest Norstat poll.
Reform's support has also risen in the past four weeks despite controversy which engulfed the party leader and prime minister, Kaja Kallas, and criticisms of some aspects of the state budget process.
Reform saw a 1.5-percentage point rise during that time.
EKRE's support has remained fairly static at the 23-24 percent-mark, over the last five weeks.
Center's support has been falling – by 2.2 percentage points over the last four weeks; the latest survey from Norstat is the first to cover a full week since the election of Mihhail Kõlvart as new Center leader, the Sunday before last.
The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)
SDE's support remains stable; Eesti 200's has continued to fall, by 2 percentage points over four weeks. The last time the party's support was this low came in late 2019.
The latest aggregate results reflect the survey period from August 21 to September 18, and a total of 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were surveyed.
Norstat polled 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age, both online and over-the-phone; the company conducts its polls on a weekly basis, aggregating them over four weeks, and claims a margin of error in direct proportion to a party's size by support – for instance with the results for the Reform Party, the largest party by support, Norstat claims a margin of error of +/- 1.65 percent.
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots