Norstat poll: Isamaa's rating nearing Center Party's

Urmas Reinsalu after being elected to chair Isamaa.
Urmas Reinsalu after being elected to chair Isamaa. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

The rating of the opposition Isamaa party has continued to grow and is nipping at the heels of the Center Party, the weekly Norstat poll reveals.

Recent results from Wednesday give the ruling Reform Party 24.9 percent of the vote, the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) 23.8 percent and Center 15.9 percent.

Isamaa is in fourth place (14.6 percent), Social Democratic Party in fifth (9.8 percent) and Eesti 200 sixth (6.3 percent).

Reform have lost a single percentage point since last week, while Center have lost 2.6 points. Support for EKRE has hovered around 23-24 percent for the past six weeks.

Isamaa have gained 4.8 points over the last five weeks and its rating is highest it has ever been in the Norstat poll. At the same time, support for Eesti 200 is the lowest it has been since December 2019.

The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)

The coalition has the support of 41 percent of respondents and the opposition 54.3 percent.

The recent aggregate results cover the period of August 28 to September 25 during which time 4,000 voting-age citizens were polled.

NGO Institute for Societal Studies and pollster Norstat look at the last four weeks' aggregate results and exclude the answers of respondents who did not have a clear preference. Both online and phone interviews are used. The margin of error is biggest for the largest group and comes to +/- 1.63 percent for the Reform Party.


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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski

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