Ratings: Isamaa support rises, other parties largely unchanged

Isamaa flags.
Isamaa flags. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

Support for the opposition Isamaa party rose by almost one percentage point over the space of a week, according to a recent survey. The rating for all the other major political parties in Estonia did not change much over the same period.

The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), found that 52.8 percent of respondents pledged for one of the three opposition parties – the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), the Center Party or Isamaa – whereas 42.9 percent chose one of the three coalition parties, namely the Reform Party, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) or Eesti 200.

Reform remains the most-supported party, picking up 25.6 percent support in the Norstat survey despite the prime minister's recent travails. Reform's rating actually went up slightly, by 0.3 percentage points, over the past week, suggesting a possible rallying round of the party faithful.

EKRE remain in second place at 23.8 percent – conversely a slight fall, by 0.2 percentage points, on the previous week, according to Norstat.

The Center Party again remains in third place on 17.2 percent support, a fall of 0.3 percentage points on week.

Center on Sunday got a new leader in Mihhail Kõlvart, but any effect this may have on the party's rating will not be clearer until next week onwards.

Isamaa saw a growth in support of 0.8 percentage points on week, the same rise as it had enjoyed the previous week too.

SDE came in in fifth place on 9.9 percent support, up from 9.7 percent the preceding week.

Eesti 200 has continued to see its rating fall, though perhaps at a slower rate than earlier, when the party had been beset by various charges of conflicts of interest and corruption on the part of two of its members and also an exodus of several comparatively prominent members; Eesti 200 now polls at 7.4 percent, down from 7.8 percent a week earlier.

All six Riigikogu parties polled above the 5 percent threshold required to win seats under the Estonian electoral system.

Of parties not currently represented at the Riigikogu, Parempoolsed picked up 2.2 percent, up from 1.9 percent a week earlier, and above the 2 percent required to qualify for state support (the party indeed polled above the 2 percent -mark at the March Riigikogu election and so obtains state support in proportion to its size).

The Estonian Greens rated at 1.6 percent, unchanged on the previous week.

The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)

The two tables following show recent weeks' results for the aggregated four weeks, followed by the weekly results.

Norstat conducts its surveys on a weekly basis and aggregates the results on the preceding four weeks, polling around 4,000 citizens of voting age and with a claimed margin of error of +/- 1.55 percent or less, over the four weeks.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merii Nael

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