Speaking at a Ministry of Defense press briefing, Col. Kiviselg said: "In the Russian Federation's full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia's armed forces are still maintaining the initiative across the entire front line.

"The intensity of fighting remains particularly high in the Donetsk region, where Russia has also seen some tactical success, and it is a similar case in the Luhansk region," Kiviselg went on.

According to Kiviselg, around 50 percent of all Russian ground force attacks are concentrated on the Donetsk oblast.

"The primary focus of combat operations is to the south of Pokrovsk, towards the areas of Selydove and Kurakhove."

"At the same time, the Russian Federation is maintaining heavy combat pressure, using mechanized, battalion-sized assault groups in the direction of Kupyansk and Lyman, where the likely goal is to secure tactical positions along the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers," Kiviselg continued in his briefing.

Muddy season imminent

He also noted that Russian forces have likely been ordered to pick up the pace of combat operations, to secure advantageous positions before the onset of the famous "Rasputitsa" season – meaning the spring or, as in this case autumn, muddy period.

"This could mean that in the coming weeks, Russian's offensive pressure will rise even further, particularly in the Kurakhove and Selydove zones, with the express goal of isolating these settlements and consolidating control over the area, along with Vuhledar," Kiviselg went on,

In strategic terms, this may mean an effort to further consolidate the eastern corridor and "land bridge" to the formerly cut-off Crimean peninsula, occupied by Russia for a decade now, and beyond.

"In so doing, Russia is preparing for a potential future link-up between the southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts. However, we do not see that the Russian Federation has sufficient forces to achieve these objectives in the near future," he added.

Then again, Rasputitsa, or in Ukrainian, Bezdorizhzhia, may not hold things up much either, the colonel added, based on last year's experience.

"Unfortunately, the autumn and winter of 2023 indicated that the arrival of the muddy season will not slow down the pace of operations significantly."

The eastern front and locations, often important transport hubs such as Vuhledar, have been in the media again after late summer and early fall was dominated by news of the success of Ukraine's own counter-offensive, in the Kursk oblast, anti-clockwise from the Donbas around Ukraine's border.

No significant developments have happened in that zone this past week, Kiviselg said.

Colonel: Russia likely increasingly dependent on North Korean aid in its subjugation of Ukraine

Kiviselg also noted that, based on publicly available information, North Korean officers seconded to Russian service in its invasion of Ukraine have been killed in action.

More specifically, on October 3, a Ukrainian precision strike was responsible for the fatalities, while the North Koreans were in the combat zone together with Russian forces.

Kiviselg added: "As a result, speculation has arisen via Russian social media that North Korean units, or at least its personnel, are actively engaged on the Ukrainian front. However, Ukrainian officials have commented that these North Korean personnel are escorting ammunition shipments sent from that country to Russia," as part of a quality control and quantity surveying pursuit, it appears.

"On this basis, we can reiterate that Russia is increasingly dependent on North Korean assistance in continuing its combat operations. One factor here, as mentioned in previous briefings, is Ukraine's ongoing success in attacking Russian ammunition depots, using drones."

"These systematic attacks are likely to continue in the near future, and the result, in the form of munitions shortages for Russian forces in certain areas, will probably be felt on the front lines in the coming weeks," Kiviselg concluded.

Col. Kiviselg gives weekly briefings on the Ukraine war, on Fridays.

An interactive map of the Ukraine front updated in real time is here.

Pyongyang and Moscow have forged closer relations since the invasion began, in contrast with Beijing's more equivocal attitude to the war.

While Russia has been making steady, if slow, progress at certain points in the east, the Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammo dumps give hope, not least when one considers how poorly these must have been defended or shored up in the first place, if they could be taken out by drones.

The U.S. and the west has to some extent been playing catch-up with its intel on Russia, including on the extent to which corruption may remain endemic at all levels even after military reforms in 2008. This could include for instance lower ranking soldiers syphoning fuel out of their tanks to sell on the black market, even as the initial invasion was ongoing, or those higher up the command chain procuring cheaper military vehicle tires than budgeted for, and personally pocketing the difference.

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