Brig. Gen. Laneman: Russian forces making progress in eastern Ukraine concerning
Talk of Russian forces' progress in eastern Ukraine as being so slow as to be almost irrelevant is not a good line to take, retired Estonian Defense Forces Brigadier General and independent Riigikogu MP Alar Laneman said.
What is of concern is that Russian troops are constantly moving forward at all, never mind how slowly, he added.
Russian forces have been making slow but persistent progress in the Donetsk oblast, which exerts an impact on both the morale of Ukrainian forces and the overall course of the war, Laneman said – even as Russian advances my sometimes just be measured in terms of meters.
Speaking to "Ukraina stuudio," Brig. Gen. Laneman said: "The Russians have managed to commence a rather slow, but still methodical and continuous advance. This certainly affects Ukrainian forces' morale. This is perhaps the most worrying aspect."
This is being carried out mainly with strong artillery support, he added.
This tactic has been used before by the Russian military.
"Where the Ukrainian positions are fixed, then they have been advancing, as it seems to me, in the way they came up with during the Second Chechen War— with very massive artillery fire, all kinds of indirect fire," Laneman went on.
"Then when everything is smashed to pieces, putting it simply, the ground forces advance and see what's left; if there are any remaining pockets of resistance – and if there are, they press on again in the same way. Very methodical and foolproof, I would say," he added.
According to Laneman, signs of such a course of events had already been present earlier.
He said: "There had been much talk in the media that Ukrainian forces were in the minority, that there was little artillery ammunition, were few personnel, and that reinforcements were coming, but that these reinforcements were not sufficiently prepared and wouldn't be able to hold out in battle," he said.
Ukraine being supplied with better weaponry and being able to deploy larger and better-trained units would also help, he said.
The quality of the officer cadre also plays a very important role.
At the same time, Laneman rejected the view expressed by some that the Russian advance on the eastern front is at such a snail's pace that it cannot ever be decisive on outcomes.
"The resistance of the Ukrainians is highly heroic, but calls like that can be irresponsible; they are soporific – a marathon is run meter by meter, too" Laneman went on.
"War brings its own dynamics – success generates more success, inspiring people and breeding further success; conversely, failure generates failure, then morale problems crop up. The narrative should instead be about how to help Ukraine, what should be done, what the solutions might be. That this gradual more towards defeat is not anything crazy – well that is not a good narrative."
Inside the Kursk oblast, where Ukrainian forces are still a chunk of Russian territory, the situation is different from what is happening in Donetsk oblast; much more dynamic, for one thing, Laneman noted.
"One explanation for this is that Ukraine has deployed somewhat different units there and also a large proportion of its good combat equipment. I wouldn't venture to speculate why the Ukrainians have done this. We have to admit that the strategic effect – which hasn't been achieved in any case of course since Ukraine hasn't defined what the goal was – has not been met. Many thought that Russia would slow down its offensive below Pokrovske because of this, but that hasn't happened. Any action in any war must be aimed at achieving some sort of effect," Laneman concluded.
Russia increased its efforts to occupy Pokrovsk, an important transport hub west of Donetsk city and in the "elbow" of the strip of Ukrainian territory Russia has occupied, at the point at which this moves from a north-south direction to a northeast-southwest trajectory. Russia is likely attempting to maintain a land bridge all the way to Crimea, which it has occupied for a decade now, and beyond, as far west as Kherson and as far north as Zaporizhzhia. In the Kursk oblast due north of Ukraine, the latter's forces have been able to trap Russian forces to their west, and in front of the Seim river.
The BBC reports that while just a few months ago, Pokrovsk, peacetime population around 60,000, felt secure, and was a destination for Ukrainian soldiers on leave to come for some rest and recuperation, now it feels like a ghost town, with only around quarter of its original population remaining.
An interactive map of the Ukraine fronts is here.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
Source: 'Ukraina stuudio,' interviewer Reimo Sildvee.