Experts cautious on long-term prospects of Bitcoin 'Trump pump'
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin has soared to record highs following the impending return of Donald Trump as United States president, though some experts in Estonia have poured cold water on this "Trump pump," noting that crypto's volatility, its lack of tangible backing, and its inherently speculative nature could still lead to dramatic market swings.
Sander Pikkel, head of investment services at Estonian bank LHV, said: "Bitcoin really is not backed up with anything. In other words, in the worst-case scenario, you could also be prepared for such an outcome that its value could fall to zero at some point."
Valeria Kiisk, a partner at Redgate Capital investment company, concurred, saying: "We have to call to mind that crypto is very volatile and responds very rapidly and strongly to particular events."
"At present, there is no commonly understood analytical method which would allow us to state whether the next price target will be 20,000 or 200,000. It comes down somewhat to a question of faith," she went on.
The recent re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has provided a significant boost to crypto assets, to the extent that Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies have reached record new highs.
One of Trump's many pledges ahead of entering office has been to make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital.
During his presidential campaign, he stated that cryptocurrency regulations should be relaxed and that the country should keep a strategic reserve of crypto assets.
He has also pledged to fire the current head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, on his very first day in office come January.
One of the changes Bitcoin has seen in recent years is a shift away from primarily being a means of speculation by private individuals and hobbyists to a legitimate area of interest for major investors and investment firms.
Bitcoin has been actively traded for over a decade now, but the new record price is also noteworthy as, despite significant energy consumption and the environmental impact of crypto mining – validating blockchain transactions and issuing new bitcoins by solving cryptographic challenges via specialized hardware – no great application for it has been found, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported.
On this, Pikkel said: "It can indeed be used for making peer-to-peer payments, but it is not widely used in a tech sense yet. Some things which have been anticipated, such as smart contracts based on [cryptocurrency] Ethereum, still have not reached the market," he went on.
As for recent developments, he said: "Initially, institutional investors in the U.S. can purchase Bitcoin via ETFs. Second, a Bitcoin halving took place in April, meaning mining one Bitcoin is now twice as expensive as it was."
"This means supply has gone down slightly. But now the election of Donald Trump as president gave it its latest push," Pikkel went on.
On Tuesday last week, election day in the U.S. and while who would be the next president was still uncertain, one Bitcoin cost €62,500; by Tuesday, the price had risen to €81,000, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported (at the time of writing, the price was €82,045.96 – ed.).
This crowns a longer-lasting trend less related to Trump's activities and status, however; three years ago, the price of Bitcoin was €56,000; by the end of the year before last, it had fallen to €15,000, however – less than a fifth of the current figure.
As for national or fiat currencies, two of the majors have moved in divergent directions in the wake of Trump's electoral win: Whereas the U.S. dollar has rallied, the euro has weakened.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' newsreader Oliver Kahu.