Expert: Age of liberal world order ends with Trump
President-elect Donald Trump won't even try to retain the liberal world order, with a new strength-based way of doing things looming, Kristi Raik, deputy director of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) told ETV foreign affairs program "Välisilm."
Does Donald Trump's convincing victory mean that the United States has become a stronger country and one in safer hands?
America has the same strength and resources it had a week ago. But Trump will perhaps add decisiveness. Looking at foreign and security policy, no one knows – and perhaps Trump doesn't know himself – what the decisions will be, where this newfound decisiveness will be channeled and how will he marry his desire to make America stronger to meddling less in global affairs. How those two things will go together.
Will we see a test of the Republican Party, which looks set to hold all the power in the U.S.? They will have a chance to get a lot of things done in the coming years, and Trump seems to have no shortage of ideas.
Yes, we can expect Trump's second term to be different from his first. It is clear now that we are facing the end of an era, and that we're in for something completely new. He wants to do many things differently. Even if Biden wanted to stick to the old ways, both domestically and in the world, Trump has no such desire.
What will this new era signify, or what will we be leaving behind?
Talking globally, what's coming to a close is the era that started with the end of World War II and the creation of what we might call the liberal world order. The UN structure and corresponding international law. Of course, it has never worked perfectly. But it did grow stronger with the end of the Cold War. It has been a favorable time for small countries. But it's over.
This disintegration has been happening for a very long time. It's hardly a surprise. Trump is perhaps the kid in the fairy tale about the emperor's new clothes who finally comes out and says that the emperor is naked – the world order which all Western leaders have attempted to safeguard and maintain is no longer working. It's broken and he [Trump] won't even try to maintain it. Replacing it will be a world increasingly based on strength.
But I also think that Trump lacks a very clear idea of what he wants to put in place of the outgoing order. His time will be one of turbulence. Perhaps someone will start to build something new after Trump. Whether they'll be American or Chinese or from somewhere else, we do not yet know.
Looking at comments in Estonia, one might think the country should be quite satisfied with the outcome. We've historically been fans of the Republican style. Should we see Donald Trump's victory as good news? Your previous point seems to suggest the opposite.
First of all, let me say that Biden's policy has been weak and nowhere near satisfactory in the past few years, when it comes to European or international security. Trump will deliver a new dynamic, which might include positive aspects but will bring a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability. Naturally, Estonia must continue working with whoever is president of the United States, and the U.S. is an ally we need here.
I believe that the Baltics, Nordics and Poland are the best prepared among European states for a Trump presidency. Ukraine is also relatively prepared. And I believe there is no cause for panic. But looking at Europe as a whole, major European powers have not done much in the face of the realization that Europe must be able to stand on its own two feet.
What would this entail in the age of the art of the deal? Should we just start buying more weapons from USA to nudge the trade balance in the right direction and abandon plans to prop up the European arms industry? Perhaps Trump would like that, and it could be a safe way to improve transatlantic relations.
Today, when there is a major war being fought in Europe, in the territory of Ukraine, standing on our own two feet means taking care of security and defense, while giving Ukraine more support. There is not enough of this capacity today. How, then, could Europe stand on its own in the future? Finding that balance is very tricky.
On the one hand, we have states, such as Estonia, that wish to maintain a maximally close allied relationship with the U.S. also in the coming years, because it is just not something Europe can replace. That is why they want to keep buying U.S. arms, for example, to help maintain that allied relationship. It's only rational.
Should this be a Europe-wide policy?
That said, looking to the future, we need to move toward Europe being able to manufacture more weapons and make do with a lower U.S. security contribution. But it's not clear how one might start moving in that direction. Whereas countries that have been the most vocal about European autonomy, especially France, have also done little to make sure Europe grows strong. We have no reason to trust them in terms of this pace picking up in the coming years.
We're living in an interesting vacuum. During a time when the U.S. is in the middle of a power transition between two very different administrations, there is a government crisis in Germany, the French government is all but paralyzed and the U.K. foreign secretary has referred to the incoming American president as a serial liar and fraud. Do you sleep at night?
There is plenty of cause for concern, while Europe should take action first and foremost. I believe Poland is a key state today, having done more than any other European country to be as strong as possible. By maintaining a good relationship with the U.S. on one hand and growing its own capacity on the other. Poland will also next hold the EU presidency, and they are already working hard to urge Europe to do more.
The United Kingdom is another key country. There was recently a U.K.-France summit where I'm sure the main topic was what is Europe to do now. If we need to consider the possibility of U.S. aid to Ukraine simply disappearing in the near future, Europe will have to find a way to compensate.
Donald Trump has said he can end the war in 24 hours. I doubt we have a good idea of what's coming. But should we prepare for major openings, and what has Moscow's reaction to Trump's victory revealed?
It seems the Kremlin is adopting a wait and see stance. Trump is just as unpredictable from where they're standing, which may be giving Putin pause. It has been suggested that the first phone call between Trump and Putin has already taken place. While the Kremlin has denied it, that does not mean it didn't happen. Also, news of a call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which happened very soon after Trump's victory was confirmed, is another source of hope in that things are not moving in the worst possible direction for Ukraine.
Of course, Russia is going on the offensive with everything it's got to improve its situation should it be forced to negotiate, so they could do it coming from a position of strength. But they are paying for it with heavy losses. Trump does have the means to put pressure on Russia. The question is whether he's willing to use them. There is also continued pressure on the Biden administration to use the few months it has left to step up support for Ukraine.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Marcus Turovski