U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will appoint Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general and former national security adviser, as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. 

According to consultant and U.S. expert Andreas Kaju, in Trump's cabinet, where one side is made up of so-called extremist candidates, Kellogg could be seen as more of a mainstream figure who is also well versed in Ukraine and Russia.

"Three-star General Keith Kellogg, who has an extremely well-decorated service record, is a veteran of the Vietnam War, Panama, and led special forces in Europe, is certainly, in a sense, a representative of the traditional American military and security nomenklatura or establishment. [He is] an accomplished and extremely competent three-star general, and at 80 years old, certainly very experienced," Kaju said.

Kellogg has stressed the need for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end the war, and that these should begin by freezing the front line in its current location.

According to Indrek Kannik, director of the Tallinn-based  International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), Kellogg's current stances are not ideal in terms of European security, but they are certainly worthy of serious consideration.

"His main message has been that America, from a position of strength, has to force both sides to engage in serious peace negotiations. This position can be understood, but the weakness of that position at the moment is that one side, Russia, is certainly not ready to engage in serious peace talks at the moment," Kannik said.

Kellogg has argued that in such a situation, Russia should be put under pressure through promises to allow Ukraine to arm itself more forcefully. According to Kannik, the aim would be to make it clear to the Russians that time is not on their side.

"Then, for the first time, a window of opportunity might open whereby the Russians start strongly considering serious negotiations," Kannik said.

It is too early to say what impact Kellogg's work could have on European security more broadly, Kaju said. "That will depend on how the Americans, at his insistence, coordination or leadership, negotiate with the Russians, presumably with Ukraine at the table, and whether and what role Europe will play in this process. Kellogg has said previously that the U.S: has the strength and credibility to force the Russians to take the Americans' views on Ukraine into account," Kaju said.

"The other side of the coin is problematic for Europeans, because the view of Kellogg and his fellow thinkers is that Ukraine understandably has a role in Russia's sphere of influence, which makes Ukraine's accession to NATO unthinkable," Kaju said.

"Their approach is that if the price of peace and stability for Ukraine in the near future is exclusion from NATO, then that is the price that has to be paid," he added.

Kaju stressed that the fact that Donald Trump has even considered the creating this special envoy role as necessary, is an indication that Ukraine will be one of the top priorities for the incoming Trump administration.

"In some ways, Trump is also a hostage to his own past pronouncements and positions. Having actively criticized the Biden administration's actions and inaction regarding the Ukraine -Russia war during his campaign, and having pledged to use American leverage to bring the war to a swift end, he now has to put his political capital where his mouth is." Kaju said.

Kannik added however, that the Trump administrations priorities will still be domestic. "But on foreign policy issues, Ukraine is still important to them," Kannik said.

According to Kannik, it is not yet clear how big a role Kellogg will play in shaping the Trump administration's Ukraine policy, but it is clear that Trump's nominee for national security adviser Mike Waltz will have the biggest influence.

"The initial feedback from European politicians who have met him has been very positive. They say he is someone who thinks deeply, calmly and has a realistic view of what is going on in the world," said Kannik.

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