ICDS head: Trump wants to end the Ukraine war quickly but has no plan yet
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed a desire to bring the ongoing war in Ukraine to a swift end, but there does not yet appear to be a concrete plan for achieving this, said Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS).
In recent weeks, there has been growing media speculation about potential peace talks to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security, stated on "Ukraina stuudio" that this is partly influenced by Donald Trump's imminent assumption of the U.S. presidency.
"Trump has repeatedly promised to end this war. Before the elections, he claimed he would do so within 24 hours. Fortunately, such statements have disappeared from his rhetoric for now, but he continues to pledge to end the war as quickly as possible. There is no reason to doubt his intention, as he frequently raises this point in various meetings. However, does he currently have a very clear, detailed plan to achieve this? The impression is that such a detailed plan does not yet exist. I think Trump's rhetoric on peace talks has been one of the reasons many others have picked up on this topic," Kannik said.
According to Kannik, Russia is not interested in peace negotiations while it continues to make slow but steady progress on the frontlines.
"Russian authorities have repeatedly stated at various levels in recent months that they would consider negotiating peace only if it also involves a complete overhaul of the European security structure. Essentially, they are returning to the December 2021 ultimatum, where they demanded that NATO's borders be rolled back to Cold War lines. This would mean the removal of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland and Sweden from NATO's military structure. Russia is currently unwilling to reach an agreement on such terms, which indicates they are not genuinely interested in peace," Kannik explained.
Some Western countries have recently increased discussions about raising defense spending, but there is no consensus among nations on expanding support for Ukraine.
"Looking at the broader picture, since the start of this phase of the war – Russia's full-scale aggression – NATO and the European Union have demonstrated considerable unity on the issue. In organizations with 27 and over 30 member states respectively, 100 percent alignment is never going to happen. We also need to recognize that the security concerns of Portugal and Spain differ somewhat from ours. So, expecting complete unanimity on every issue isn't realistic, but the differences have been managed quite effectively," Kannik said.
"I don't see it as a major problem if some countries take additional steps they deem necessary and then try to persuade others to follow suit," he added.
Kannik noted that in terms of defense spending, Estonia may find an ally in Trump.
"I believe that in this regard, we can count Donald Trump as a strong ally. Trump will undoubtedly demand greater spending from European countries. It's hard to disagree with him here, as Europe has fallen significantly behind the U.S. in this area," Kannik said.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Marcus Turovski