Expert: Merkel missed opportunity to pressure Moscow via natural gas policy
Germany under Angela Merkel had the chance to pressure Russia via its natural gas policy, but miscalculations in strategy mean it failed to do so, security expert Rainer Saks said.
Saks made his remarks to ETV's "Välisilm" foreign affairs show, and following the release of Merkel's memoirs, "Freedom: Memories from 1954-2021."
"Two things will haunt her forever," Saks said.
"One is the energy policy, tied to Russia, which cannot be considered a success. That has now been severed, wound up, and politically discarded, even though Germany gained economic benefits from it," he continued.
"The second is the migration crisis, which caused very serious political tensions across Europe and was certainly not managed successfully," Saks said.
On the other hand, Saks disagreed with the notion that Germany should not have engaged with Russia whatsoever, saying: "Really, with the gas policy which was pursued with Russia, there was a chance for Germany to take the initiative and keep Russia under pressure."
"This opportunity existed, but was simply not taken advantage of. This shows that the strategic calculation failed. Ultimately, Germany did not benefit from it on a large scale."
While acknowledging that Germany has since changed its policy toward Russia, Saks emphasized that Europe as a whole needs to do the same.
"We would like this switch to be capable of restraining Russia, but Germany alone is not enough. It has to involve the whole of Europe. Now the problem surely is, as we can see in the context of Brexit, that European foreign and security policy has changed for the weaker. Reaching consensus is highly challenging when domestic politics in some of the member states have become more volatile. With every election, the situation in some countries changes so dramatically that new efforts are needed to achieve consensus," the expert went on.
"Plus I still believe that Brexit has exerted a significant impact. And the EU's global influence in foreign and security policy has undoubtedly diminished as a result. This is not something people want to acknowledge right now. Europe needs to think about how to compensate for it, though," he added.
Saks noted that when the U.K. was part of the EU, it formed one apex of the leading pyramid, alongside the Franco-German alliance, in driving Europe's leadership.
"For some reason, the Germany-France axis is not functioning, but I disagree that it is due to the personal relationships of the two countries' leaders. This issue runs much deeper than that. There is a process at play which is not being openly acknowledged: A process which prevents the emergence of a strong, unified, and proactive foreign policy," Saks reflected.
Ultimately, Saks pointed to Ukraine as the primary victim of this failure. "It is Ukraine which is suffering as a result, and this is the greatest loss."
Merkel late last month published her memoirs including in translation into English. These cover her formative years in the former East Germany, through to her time as chancellor, a position she held for 16 years, 2005-2021.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Aleksander Krjukov
Source: 'Välisilm,' interviewer Maria-Ann Rohemäe.