Environmental organizations believe Estonia should support the target unconditionally, however, without additional qualifications.

Environmental groups: Estonia should concur wholesale with goals

Laura Maria Vilbiks, spokesperson for the Estonian Environmental Organizations' Chamber (Eestimaa loodusfondi ja keskkonnaühenduste koda), expressed strong support for the EU's climate targets, calling it an essential step in the right direction.

She said: "The global, EU, and Estonian climate policy goal is to curb the global temperature rise to well below two degrees [Celsius], and striving to stay within a 1.5-degree rise, as per the Paris Agreement."

Vilbiks stressed that achieving carbon neutrality is a necessary way-stage toward this goal.

"Scientists agree that the most crucial factor in curbing climate change is that global greenhouse gas emissions must start falling, and this decade," Vilbiks went on.

Citing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, Vilbiks noted that to achieve the limiting of global warming to 1.5 degrees, global emissions must halve by 2030, i.e., five years from now.

She also referenced an EU climate change council report which states that the EU's emissions budget for 2030-2050 should range between 11 and 14 gigatons of CO2 equivalent.

To meet this, the EU must reduce its net emissions by 90-95 percent by 2040, compared with 1990 levels," Vilbiks went on.

Attaining a 90 percent reduction is seen as the bare necessity to remain within the 1.5-degree target, while Vilbiks suggested that carbon neutrality by 2040 is the most realistic path towards staying under this threshold.

However, she acknowledged that this may not be feasible in a political sense, proposing that any shortfall be offset via financing emissions reductions outside the EU.

Business groups stress need for impact analysis

Meanwhile, the Estonian Employers' Confederation (Tööandjate keskliit) takes a more tentative approach to the issue.

They argue that Estonia should not go straight into backing the EU's 2040 climate targets without first conducting a thorough socioeconomic impact analysis.

Employers' confederation representative Kati Rostfeldt said: "Employers believe we must carefully evaluate the new obligations this target would impose on Estonia, how Estonia's positions are presented to the European Commission, and how the country advocates for its interests."

The confederation stressed that Estonia should not agree to the proposed target without fully understanding its potential impacts on businesses, energy systems, and employment.

"It is unacceptable to agree unconditionally to a decision with unknown consequences and insufficient stakeholder consultation," Rostfeldt added.

Ants Erik, chair of the Estonian private forest union (Eesti erametsa liit) echoed these sentiments.

He said: "We need to understand clearly the consequences of these targets, yet we currently do not. Only then can we create measures to mitigate negative impacts on people and businesses."

"It would be preferable to wait for the results of the 2030 climate targets before making decisions about 2040," he added.

Of other business spokespersons, Jaak Nigul, representing the Estonian forest and wood industries association (Eesti metsa- ja puidutööstuse liit), said his organization opposes the EU's 2040 climate target, on the basis that transitioning entirely to renewable energy is impossible with current tech, and also due to the stated lack of analysis.

Ahti Asmann, of the Estonian chemical industry association (Keemiatööstuse liit), also rejects the target, arguing there is no justified need or feasible technology to achieve it, and emphasizing the need to focus on existing goals rather than setting new ones.

Elena Sapp, of the Estonian agricultural and chamber of commerce (Põllumajandus-kaubanduskoda) said she supports aligning climate goals with agricultural sustainability and rural viability but calls for clearer conditions and assessments of the 2030 targets before moving forward.

The Riigikogu Environment Committee held a public hearing recently which focused on Estonia's position on 2040, with representatives from over ten stakeholder groups taking part.

Committee chair Igor Taro (Eesti 200) explained that achieving climate goals would require technological advancements and investment support for businesses. "Without which we cannot set overly ambitious targets, as their implementation largely would fall on business," the MP said.

The committee session ended without consensus, highlighting the divide between environmental organizations and business groups outlined above.

Opposition parties too have called for more analysis on the 2040 plan before signing up to it.

The EU aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 55 percent by 2030, to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and, in between those two points in time, to cut CO2 emissions: By 90-95 percent, by 2040, when compared with levels back in 1990. Doing so would enable the 1.5-degree average global temperature fall to be met, it is argued.

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