Speaking to "Vikerhommik" Monday morning, Saks said Ukraine is also facing its own personnel challenges, particularly when it comes to forming a reserve.

Taking a look at the front line, Russia's progress has been minimal, Saks added, while battlefield losses have been far more decisive.

"Russia's army has thus far been able to compensate for its losses by recruiting mercenaries," he said.

"They have recruited both volunteers and contract soldiers in exchange for financial compensation. They have also mobilized additional personnel. Broadly speaking, they have managed to maintain the size of their contingent until now. But in the past three months, losses have outpaced recruitment capacity," he went on.

At the same time, according to Saks, Ukraine itself has become sensitive to losses too, and has not been able to properly initiate the process of forming up a reserve.

"They had completely lost control of this already at the end of 2022 and at the beginning of 2023, when the old military commissariat system had to be shut down," Saks explained.

"This was one of President Zelenskyy's major failures. This should have been done earlier, but it wasn't. So, Ukraine is also facing issues in forming reserves," the expert went on.

Which side's defense industry can supply the front line more effectively is also key, he said.

Ukraine depends heavily on Western military and financial assistance, which Saks believes could be more efficient in giving Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative.

While precise figures have not been published, Western aid to Ukraine amounts to hundreds of billions of euros; a significant sum but still not sufficient to force the Russian army to go on the retreat.

Saks noted that Ukraine has also been successful in annihilating a significant amount of Russian artillery and ammunition.

He said: "Ukraine's ongoing issue is its air defense. They lack sufficient air defense systems. The second issue relates to their air force. Ukraine is struggling greatly with Russian glide bombs, which pose a major problem on the front line."

As for the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk which began in late summer 2024, Saks said that there is still too little information to determine how significant it will turn out to be.

Saks also expressed hope that Donald Trump's return to office as U.S. president this month could prompt the West to move away from its current semi-passive approach.

"In addition to sanctions, aggressive diplomatic pressure on Russia is needed, but Western countries have not been able to achieve this. This half-passive behavior cannot ensure rapid success, as Russia has stronger strategic endurance. But President Trump could take the initiative himself. This would mean putting strong pressure on Russia. After all, they have lost their positions in the Caucasus, Syria, and elsewhere," Saks continued.

"The West should actively engage with Third World countries, a leadership role that is currently absent in the Western world, but which Trump could take on," he concluded.

An interactive map of the Ukraine fronts updated in real time is here.

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