Estonia's foreign policy prioritizes Ukraine in 2025
Ukraine will be Estonia's foreign policy priority in 2025 and will continue to be as long as the war continues, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov said in an interview about the coming year.
Vseviov is the top diplomat at the ministry and has been in the role since 2021, following a stint as Estonia's ambassador to the U.S. (2018-2021.) Previously, he worked for a decade at the Ministry of Defense, eventually also holding the role of permanent secretary.
ERR News asked the official about some of last year's decisions, this year's upcoming events and Estonia's foreign policy goals.
"Our number one priority continues to be the war that our neighbor to the east has unleashed on Ukraine. That has been our priority since 2022 and continues to be for as long as this war rages," he said last month.
"We've always, always anticipated the winter of 2024-25 to be the hardest period for us in this war. We're sensing this as we speak [in mid-December]. The difficulties are clearly evident, obviously, on the front lines in Ukraine, but also in terms of public messaging in the West. We do believe that it is the hardest and darkest before dawn.
"If we manage to survive this difficult period, then the spring of 2025, perhaps the summer of 2025, will bring easier times for the Ukrainians and for us."
Estonia provides Ukraine with both military and humanitarian aid. In November, new winterization and military packages were announced.
A flurry of articles in Western media have recently focused on the seeming inevitability of Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations and ceasefire, narratives that are less common in the Estonian media.
Asked if it's understood by others outside the region that Ukraine can lose the war if it does not receive the help it needs, Vseviov said: "No war is a predetermined conclusion."
He reiterated a lasting and just peace can only be achieved once Russian President Vladimir Putin understands his limits: "As long as Putin believes time to be on his side, he will continue his aggression."
The secretary general said the West must "help Ukrainians gain a position of strength militarily and also demonstrate our own self-confidence." It also needs to show its policies have "staying power" and can avoid a "180-degree shift" when governments change in allied countries.
"When we said that we will never accept changes to European borders that come as a result of military force, we meant it. We will always mean it," he said. "When we said that we will help those who fall victim to armed aggression, we meant it. And we will continue supporting Ukraine as the victim this year, next year, the year from that, if necessary. We can do it."
He said there is no contest between Russia's economic, military or political power and Europe, the European Union or NATO's — the West "far outweighs" Russia's.
"So our message to our friends in Europe is that we need to keep calm and carry on," Vseviov said. "Things are going to be okay in the long run. We need to survive the short term and then we'll be okay."
Telling Estonia's story around the world
In recent months, the secretary general has visited both Asia — Japan, South Korea and China — and South America, far from Estonia's traditional allies. Minister of Foreign Affairs Magus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) made the first official visits by an Estonian foreign minister to Argentina, Chile and Columbia at the end of 2024.
Asked how and why Estonia is expanding its diplomacy, Vseviov said: "We've learned that although Russia's war of aggression is focused on Europe, our ability to push back against aggression requires global engagement with like-minded countries and those who are not yet like-minded."
He said this is needed to ensure sanctions are not circumvented, that Russia is isolated "as much as possible on the international stage" and international law is upheld.
Met First Vice FM Kim & Vice Defence Minister Sung to discuss further support to #Ukraine, in the context of Russia's serious escalation involving DPKR.
— Ambassador Jonatan Vseviov (@vseviov) November 15, 2024
and are united in protecting the rules based world order and determined to enhance our bilateral cooperation. pic.twitter.com/7F9RezdDYw
"So we've been telling the story, spreading the message from Asia to Africa to South America, and frankly speaking, we have found that news of our demise are clearly exaggerated," the diplomat said.
"International law, territorial integrity, sovereignty, the illegality of aggression as a tool of statecraft — those principles are widely supported around the world. And that's why we have to ensure that countries who support those principles also see and understand the situation in Ukraine as it is: An aggression against a sovereign state by a nuclear power under the umbrella of its nuclear deterrent, shielded from justice by its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council."
Building contacts in the east
Looking at Asia, South Korea has opened a new embassy in Tallinn and more high-level visits are expected, Vseviov said. Officials from the Singaporean Ministry of Defense visited Estonia in December. Baltic and Nordic foreign ministers visited India in February.
Relations are also being strengthened with Japan — which has its own territorial dispute with Russia — politically, economically and culturally. Vseviov said while Japan and Estonia are geographically far from one another, there is a lot that unites them, as well as other like-minded countries in the Asia Pacific.
"We both care passionately about territorial integrity and sovereignty. We both worry about authoritarian tendencies and aggressive behavior and want to see a united front globally against militarist expansion anywhere in the world," he said.
The diplomat said "people-to-people contacts" need to be developed, not only those among governmental representatives. This includes higher education institutions, the media and the cultural sector.
"We're trying to facilitate as much of this as possible, and I'm happy to note that the interest seems to be mutual," he said.
For example, several events featured Japanese artists at Tartu's Capital of Culture last year. The International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) think tank in Tallinn has a position funded by the Japanese government to facilitate research between the two counties. Former Estonian Defense Forces Chief Gen. Martin Herem visited Tokyo last year.
Regarding Taiwan, Vseviov said Estonia continues to stick to its longstanding one-China policy: "Which does not preclude cultural or economic contacts with representatives from Taipei."
Riigikogu delegations and MPs — which organize their work separately from the ministry — also visited Taiwan, South Korea and Japan last year.
Attention not split
Vseviov denied that visiting further flung corners of the globe detracts from Estonia's usual allies, such as Europe and the USA.
"No, I think where our attention is or where our attention lies is evidenced not by where we travel, but by what we do and the messages that we deliver, the policies that we try to advance, we are a small country," he said.
The official said aspirations are "fairly local" and "no one can seriously assume Estonia to have global aspirations." The goal is to be secure.
"That European countries should be able to live within their internationally recognized borders freely, choose their own allies, that aggression and the changing of borders through military force should not be accepted as the norm of international life," he said.
"This is what we want for Europe. This is what most countries want for their neighborhoods. These are globally relevant concepts, and we need global partners, our global partners, to recognize that what is being challenged in Ukraine is not just European security, but in fact those global principles as well."
Estonia following events in Georgia with 'deeply felt sorrow'
Estonia has been a strong supporter of Georgia's democratic transaction and EU aspirations for more than a decade. It has also given millions of euros in aid and funded projects.
Asked if, given the backsliding now taking place in the country, this has been a waste of time, Vseviov said: "The developments in Georgia, we follow with not just focused attention, but also deeply felt sorrow because of the enormous resources, first and foremost political capital, that we have spent on bringing Georgia closer to its desire to become a normal European democracy."
He said steps taken by politicians in Georgia over the past months and years have seen the country move further away from being a stable democracy and a foreign policy that aligns with Estonia's.
The diplomat said these two things are "of crucial importance" when determining which countries can and cannot join NATO and the European Union.
"We do believe that the Georgian people will continue to aspire to a European future, but the current Georgian government clearly does not," he said. "And if they get a mandate for that from their people, so be it. But coming into Europe by moving away from Europe is not going to be possible."
Estonia sees its role as making "it as clear as we possibly can" to Georgia that it is moving further and further away from this future.
"Speaking as clearly as we possibly can on this and similar issues is Estonia's mission — the main goal in our policy — and hopefully this clarity will help Georgia, the Georgian people, think through their own position and take action accordingly," Vseviov said.
Estonia, along with Latvia and Lithuania, have already sanctioned more than a dozen officials in the Georgian government, including the prime minister, honorary chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party and interior minister over a crackdown on protesters.
Estonia sanctioned another 14 #Georgian authorities, including Prime Minister Kobakhidze.
— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) December 15, 2024
The violence perpetrated by the authorities against protesters, journalists & opposition leaders is criminal & against human rights.
I call on all EU countries to react & to take actions
Asked if more are expected, he said: "Our goal is not to sanction anyone. Hopefully, the answer is no, we won't need to sanction anyone else. We are sanctioning people based on their action. We are doing so in order to draw light to violence that is being used against peaceful protesters.
"Hopefully, the steps we've already taken are deterring enough to avoid future similar developments. If not then we're prepared to obviously enlarge the sanctions."
Estonia does not 'foresee' elections in Belarus
As reported last month, Estonia will not recognize Belarus' presidential elections or their results later this month, Vseviov reiterated.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko's five-year term ends in 2025 and he will seek reelection in January. The opposition has been shattered and no credible candidates will stand, activists say.
Vseviov denied elections would take place next year. "We do not foresee that elections will come up in January in Belarus. If the regime declares elections to have taken place, then we will obviously help others see through the charade that it is," he said.
"Unfortunately, the Belarusian people live under a dictatorship," the secretary general added.
"The pretend elections, or the fake elections, that dictatorships organize are meant to legitimize their rule, but those attempts at faking democracy are going to fail. We will call them out as such, and continue to support the Belarusian people in their democratic aspirations, including through supporting Ms. Tsikhanouskaya and her work around the world."
Political activist and leader of the Belarusian democratic movement Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said she was "grateful" for Estonia's stance.
Estonia-US relationship not driven by ideological preferences
Donald Trump is set to take office as U.S. president for a second time on January 20.
Vseviov, who was Estonia's ambassador to the U.S. during Trump's first term, previously said the two countries' relationship is not directed by "strategic necessity" nor "ideological preferences or party preferences." Estonia has contacts with both sides.
He said "Trump is still the same Trump" and expects changes to the administration's foreign policy, tone and priorities.
Speaking about Trump's promise to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, the diplomat said only Putin can do that.
On the subject of European defense spending and Trump's threats to countries not meeting the NATO target, he said multiple U.S. presidents have pushed this line. Estonia's spending has exceeded the goal for more than a decade.
"But for us, much remains the same. The fundamental factors underpinning Estonia's security and security policy are unchanged and still mainly focus on achieving a fair and lasting peace in Europe," Vseviov said.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski