EDF colonel: Ukraine needs the front line to stabilize this year

The year ahead will certainly be as difficult for Ukraine as the previous years of war and Kyiv's objective should be to stabilize the front line, said Col. Janno Märk, chief of staff of the Estonian Division.
"If we set targets perhaps for 2025, Ukraine definitely needs to stabilize the front line. Secondly, it needs to build up its forces and capabilities, particularly through the development of its own defense industry and capacities, something they have already demonstrated. Ukrainians have managed to develop various long-range capabilities and have successfully conducted deep operations and precision strikes both on Russian territory and in the Black Sea area," Col. Janno Märk said on the ETV "Ukraina stuudio" program.
On the material side, Ukraine primarily needs to strengthen its air defense.
"If we talk about what Ukraine needs going forward, first and foremost, it needs to enhance its air defense to reduce attacks on civilian infrastructure, energy systems and the civilian population. It needs to upgrade and expand its drone capabilities, acquire more ammunition and, I would say, secure a significant supply of spare parts for various systems that have been on the front lines for a long time. Western donors' assistance in this regard is also crucial," Märk outlined.
In addition, Märk believes that efforts on the diplomatic and economic fronts must continue to hinder Russia's ability to build up its forces and strengthen its defense capabilities.
Russia continues to hold the tactical initiative
In the past week, Russian armed forces have continued to hold tactical initiative on the battlefield, as they have for most of the past year, Col. Märk said.
"Following some regrouping during the holiday period, the intensity of attacks has resumed, with roughly 170 to 180 attacks per day in recent weeks. The main focus remains on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, where the Russian Federation's armed forces have not changed their tactics, relying primarily on infantry assaults. This has led to massive losses for them, but at the same time, slow progress across the entire sector," Märk explained regarding the latest developments.
However, Ukraine's organized defense continues to hold, he added. "Every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory occupied costs the aggressor at least 100 lives," the colonel noted.
According to Märk, Russia is advancing primarily because it has a significant advantage in both manpower and ammunition, particularly long-range munitions. Additionally, Ukraine has yet to find an effective countermeasure against Russian glide bombs.
Märk emphasized that even if Pokrovsk were to fall, it would not necessarily mean the collapse of the entire Donbas front line.
"I believe Ukraine's armed forces have demonstrated before that withdrawing from certain key positions does not result in the collapse of the whole front. We saw this in Vuhledar a few months ago and the same is likely with Pokrovsk. Indeed, Pokrovsk is a logistically important hub for both roads and railways, but even if it had to be abandoned, Ukraine's forces would certainly be capable of reorganizing their defense," he explained.
Last week, Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Kursk direction on Russian territory, but Märk believes Ukraine's objective there is not to capture large amounts of land.
"These are more likely counterattacks or raids aimed at either preempting or neutralizing certain potential enemy actions. In other words, these kinds of counterattacks and raids are a normal part of defensive operations," he said.
Looking at the Kursk situation more broadly, Märk argued that Ukraine's actions there have been justified. "From a strategic perspective, it has forced the Russian Federation to concentrate a sizable force grouping in that region, which took several months to assemble. This has undoubtedly reduced pressure in other sectors, particularly in Donbas. And if diplomatic negotiations take place at some point during 2025, control of that territory would certainly strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position," Märk added.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Marcus Turovski