EDF colonel: Ukraine exploited Russian troop reorganization for fresh Kursk attack

After a small success in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, Russia has begun to reorganize its forces, while the replenishment of North Korean units has also opened up the possibility for a new offensive by the Ukrainian armed Forces in Kursk Oblast, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center. Overall, however, a war of attrition continues on the front line, the colonel added.
The number of Russian attacks fell over the past week, according to Col. Kiviselg. The week before, Russian units carried out an average of 168 attacks a day, while over the past week, the number dropped to 110.
"This is, above all, related to the reorganization of the armed forces of the Russian Federation," he explained.
Following the capture of Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, the Russian army has started to rebuild and replenish its units in that region. Meanwhile, in Kursk Oblast, Russia is in the process of replenishing the North Korean units that are fighting there. This has led to a decrease in military activity in both regions, Col. Kiviselg said at Friday's weekly Ministry of Defense press conference.
"For their part, this has been exploited by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who, according to public sources, yesterday launched successful attacks in Kursk Oblast, capturing new settlements and areas, particularly to the south-east of Sudzha," the EDF colonel said.
However, this has not prevented Russian forces from continuing to press in both north and central parts of the front, Col. Kiviselg continued.
"The armed forces of the Russian Federation have managed to maintain their bridgehead north of Kupiansk at the settlement of Dvorichna, across the Oskil River and it is possible that there will be an attempt to expand further in that area," he explained.
The aim would be to link Ukrainian forces and, in the event that several successful bridgeheads can be established, to also split the Ukrainian forces in this direction, he added.
"At the moment, the bridgehead over the Oskil River is not very big – around a hundred men – but nevertheless the Russian Federation has managed to keep that bridgehead there for a relatively long period of time," the colonel said.
According to the EDF intelligence chief, the direction of Russia's attacks has not changed over the past the week, with the focus in Donetsk Oblast still on the Pokrovsk settlement. "There, the Russians have continued to progress gradually, and in the last seven days have advanced over an area of approximately ten square kilometers," he said.
Col. Kiviselg also said it was possible that in the coming weeks the Russian army would bring additional units to the outskirts of Pokrovsk in order to cut off the city's supply routes and thus completely isolate it.
"To sum up, the war of attrition has continued, with the most significant event of the past week being the relatively large precision strike on targets in Ukraine on February 1, in which Russia used both its strategic bombers, long-range bombers and strikes from the Black Sea region with Kalibr missiles, as well Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles from Crimea and the Russian mainland," the EDF colonel said.
The last attack of this scale took place on January 15, he added.
At the same time, however, Ukraine has also continued its successful strikes against key infrastructure inside Russian territory, Col. Kiviselg noted.
"This has mainly been to damage and destroy infrastructure related to the oil industry, thereby reducing the Russian Federation's cash flow, which would otherwise certainly be used to support the military industry and aggression as warfare in Ukraine continues," he explained.
Col. Kiviselg also referred to unofficial data showing that the Ukrainians were able to carry out far more successful attacks on Russian oil facilities in January this year than previously.
"While last year the average was one to two successful attacks per month, in January already, Ukraine has carried out seven successful attacks on oil facilities. Let's hope the Ukrainians will continue to have a sharp eye and precise hand," Col. Kiviselg said.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Michael Cole