This challenges Russian forces' momentum, he added.

Fighting in Donbas has slightly abated this past week, according to some media reports, and against the backdrop of potential ceasefire talks.

Speaking to "Ukraina Stuudio," Lt Col. Puusepp said that while Russian forces had been averaging 170 offensive actions per week in the Donbas, the number has dropped to around 110 this week.

"Clearly, the Russians are unable to bring in fresh units from the rear echelons to sustain their offensive tempo," he said.
This was despite recent gains, for instance, in the Donetsk oblast.

"They recently captured Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, but now they need to stabilize the front line, make up for losses, and bring on reinforcements.

However, considering that Russia has been losing over 1,000 combatants daily across the fronts, with Donbas alone accounting for 600-700 of these casualties, continuously supplying new troops, ammunition, and equipment from the rear takes time," Puusepp went on.

Fierce battles continue around Pokrovsk, further to the west in the Donetsk oblast and a major transport hub which Russia has long been attempting to occupy via an offensive ongoing since last summer.

According to Puusepp, Russian forces currently aim to encircle and isolate the city.

However, media reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have begun a counteroffensive, to prevent that encirclement, though information is scanty.

"We don't see much of what the Ukrainians are doing there from public sources. My belief is that, given the recent change in the leadership of the ground forces, some strategic adjustments have been made. Defensive lines west and south of Pokrovsk have likely been reinforced in recent weeks, and I believe Ukraine is actively working to halt the Russian advance there," the lieutenant colonel added.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continue their previous tactics.

"This is a leisurely advance at the cost of enormous losses. Over the past week, they have gained only about 10 square kilometers. Their operational method remains the same: dropping [glide] bombs from aircraft 40 to 60 kilometers behind the front line, to suppress Ukrainian positions. This is then followed by artillery barrages, and then small infantry units, ranging from three to 20-30 men, attempt to make an advance," Puusepp explained.

Meanwhile, in the Kursk oblast in Russia, into which Ukraine launched an offensive starting last summer, Ukraine has stabilized the front line over the past month, holding a 400-500 kilometer stretch, Puusepp noted.

Ukrainian forces have carried out small strikes there also, to gain more favorable terrain.

"These modest counterattacks are mainly aimed at securing tactical advantages by taking control of better terrain," the officer said.

"It seems that the Russians have not launched a decisive operation there. They have not deployed the mass of troops necessary to retake the remaining 500 square kilometers," he went on.

While the Russian regime is apparently demanding faster results in Kursk, Puusepp said that in any case, they are unable to provide sufficient resources to their forces there at a time when Ukraine is on the advance there too.

"Putin may demand results, but if this unit is not provided with adequate personnel, equipment, long-range artillery, and air support, then clearly, their numerical advantage over Ukraine is not enough to secure a decisive victory," Puusepp added.

The entry into office last month of Donald Trump as U.S. president has been followed by a push towards a ceasefire deal – with Kursk being a bargaining chip for Ukraine.

While a Ukrainian accession to NATO sooner rather than later may seem to correlate with a stronger bargaining position for Ukraine, there is a case to be made for the reverse situation.

The Donbas consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, much of which are currently occupied by Russia, and the region was also the scene of Russia's shadow war starting over a decade ago. With the 2022 invasion Russian forces also occupied parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts to the southwest, building a so-called land bridge to the Crimean peninsula, which it had occupied following an illegal referendum in 2014.

An interactive map of the Ukraine fronts updated in real time is here.

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