At a Ministry of Defense press conference, Lt. Col. Janek Kesselmann, deputy chief of the Defense Forces Intelligence Center, provided an update on the latest developments on the front lines of the war in Ukraine.

Kesselmann emphasized that the ongoing geopolitical shifts have not been reflected in the tactical situation. "The fighting continues on both sides, with the Russian Federation and the Ukrainian armed forces actively engaged in combat," he said.

The most significant combat activity has taken place in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched an attack southeast of the city of Sudzha. "The operations resembled those conducted earlier this year, which were focused northeast and east of Sudzha," Kesselmann explained.

According to the Intelligence Center's assessment, Ukraine's attack constitutes active defense rather than an attempt to achieve a larger operational effect. "Strategically, Ukraine's footprint in Kursk remains relatively small. The Russian Federation has yet to turn the situation to its advantage or resolve it in its favor," Kesselmann added.

On the main axis of the Russian offensive, which remains centered on the area around Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, the situation has remained unchanged.

"I remind you that, in our assessment, the Russian regime aims to expand its presence in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions," Kesselmann noted. "It is well known that Russia has decided to formally incorporate these regions, which is why its efforts are primarily focused on strengthening its hold over Donetsk. The Pokrovsk direction remains a key objective and has been under pressure for nearly a year. However, at the current pace of operations, there are no signs of a rapid Russian breakthrough in this sector."

After Pokrovsk, Russia's next likely targets would be Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but given the current rate of progress, achieving these objectives will take considerable time, Kesselmann said.

"At this pace, it would take until 2075 for Russia to occupy all of Ukraine," he remarked.

"For all of us, it is crucial to observe how these geopolitical considerations begin to shape battlefield actions. At this stage, Ukraine does not need to end the war at the tactical level. In a war of attrition, these decisions are made elsewhere, not on the battlefield. Economies play a decisive role, as do diplomatic efforts," the colonel stated.

In conclusion, Kesselmann noted that Ukraine is holding firm on all fronts. "The situation is extremely difficult for them, and they are suffering significant losses, but Russia's losses are clearly greater than Ukraine's."

The EDF Intelligence Center also released a written report detailing the battlefield situation.

According to the report, the most significant military activity took place in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched an attack southeast of Sudzha on February 6-7. This attack mirrored a previous surprise assault at the beginning of the year, which was directed northeast and east of Sudzha.

The February 7 attack specifically targeted the settlement of Ulanok, with reports indicating that Ukrainian forces were also moving toward Plekhoevo, a settlement closer to the Russian-Ukrainian border.

As of February 13, 2025, Ukrainian forces have advanced approximately five kilometers toward Ulanok and have successfully maintained control over the gained territory.

No significant activity has been observed in the Plekhoevo and Russkaya Konopelka areas. However, Russian forces have carried out counterattacks on Ukrainian-held territory in the western part of Kursk region, near the settlement of Sverdlikovo.

It remains unclear why Ukrainian units repeated a maneuver similar to their January offensive, the Intelligence Center noted. "One possible explanation is the intent to secure Sudzha, which is the largest settlement under Ukrainian control in the Kursk region and serves as a key logistical hub. Losing control of Sudzha or allowing Russian artillery to exert greater influence over it would complicate Ukraine's ability to hold its positions in Kursk, likely forcing a significant withdrawal."

Cost of Russian advancement 100 troops per square kilometer in January

It remains unclear whether Ukrainian units intend to consolidate their recent gains by attempting to capture the settlements of Ulanok or Plekhoevo, according to the Intelligence Center.

No similar developments have been reported elsewhere in the Kursk region.

Russian forces have maintained their bridgehead north of Kupiansk and are likely to continue efforts to expand it while attempting to establish new crossing points over the Oskil River.

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces continue to push westward.

Ukrainian counterattacks near Pokrovsk allowed them to capture positions in the Kotlyne and Pishchane areas. One likely consequence of this has been a slowdown in the pace of Russian operations.

Compared to the end of last year, Russian forces captured nearly 100 square kilometers less territory in January 2025 than in previous months. However, Russian losses amounted to approximately 100 soldiers per square kilometer — counting both killed and wounded personnel.

The relatively high number of casualties — estimated at between 1,000 and 1,500 dead or wounded per day — has forced Russian forces to send even injured soldiers into assaults, the Intelligence Center noted.

"The effectiveness of such 'assault units' is highly questionable. However, these tactics wear down Ukrainian forces, primarily by depleting ammunition supplies, while also allowing Russia to avoid treating war-disabled soldiers or paying them long-term compensation. While this may seem brutal, given how little regard Russian forces show for the lives of even their healthy and able-bodied soldiers, such behavior is hardly surprising," the report stated.

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