This escalation is therefore not just incidental, and both sides have made some gains recently, Col. Karu went on.

Speaking to Ukraina Stuudio, Karu said: "Recently, frontline activity has definitely been on the rise, and the likely reason for this is the negotiations that could be ahead in the near future."

"Both sides want to achieve certain gains before then, which may lead to a bloodier situation on the front," he added.

At the tactical level, for Ukraine, successful air defense would be needed.

"I think the most effective approach would be to neutralize the aircraft that Russian forces use to drop these glide bombs," Karu said — glide bombs being mostly regular bombs fitted with fins, which make them cover a larger distance.

"Aircraft are definitely harder to replace than bombs."

Karu added that although Russia's glide bombs are not particularly accurate, Russia has large quantities of them, leading to widespread damage.

Karu noted that while Ukraine's initial attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast last summer was unexpected, a second offensive, launched early this month, similarly took observers off guard.

"They likely took advantage of a small weakness or confusion on the Russian side and seized new territories."

At the same time, the rationale for the latest offensive was sound.

"I personally think this is mainly linked to the upcoming negotiations—to gain stronger bargaining chips and to show the Russian people that not everything is going well there," he explained.

"I think they had three goals: To tie up Russian forces and draw them from other frontlines, possibly to gain leverage for negotiations, and definitely to deal a blow to the Kremlin's reputation," he added.

One of Ukraine's recent objectives, according to Karu, has been Kursk oblast in Russia, where Ukrainian forces carried out a surprise attack.

As for hopeful signs, Karu referenced the additional Mirage-2000 fighter jets recently received from France.

"These Mirage jets will be highly beneficial to Ukraine, as they are NATO aircraft capable of carrying a variety of NATO weaponry," he said.

Although the exact number remains unknown, their arrival carries significant symbolic and strategic weight, Karu added, and is ample demonstration that Kyiv is still fully backed by its Western allies as the war nears its fourth year.

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