Experts: No letup in fighting despite talk of Ukraine peace negotiations
Although Russian attacks along the Ukraine front have eased somewhat, experts say there is no sign on the battlefield of preparations for peace talks. Even if negotiations were to begin, they would not immediately ease the war, as military success dictates leverage at the table.
Lt. Col. Janek Kesselmann, deputy commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Center, says that combat activity on the Ukrainian front is down compared with December, for example. However, this is not as significant as political decisions are. Thus far, no political factors have emerged that would be reflected in combat operations, ETV's "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported.
"This isn't evident on the battlefield right now," Kesselmann said. "If hostilities were to cease, that would be the first tangible result of negotiations."
Reserve Col. Hannes Toomsalu agreed that the only visible outcome of peace talks would be a ceasefire.
While combat activity has decreased, drone strikes remain daily occurrences. Toomsalu attributes this current situation to shortage of manpower on the Russian side.
"It's as though the Russians have aerial assets, but they don't have the manpower, and that's why they can't launch as many attacks," he specified.
If that is the case, then the U.S. president's push for negotiations came at a time when Russia needed it.
Regarding the talks themselves, Toomsalu predicted that Ukraine could lose territory in the process, raising questions about the strategic value of their entire Kursk offensive.
"The Russians may not even come to the table before the Ukrainians have been pushed out of Kursk," the reserve colonel noted. "As a negotiation tool or pressure tactic, it seems to have lost its value in the current political context."
Even the start of negotiations would not bring immediate relief to the troops in the trenches, acknowledged Col. Eero Rebo, commander of the Headquarters of the Estonian Defense League. Until a deal is signed, both sides will continue to use force to strengthen their position at the negotiating table.
"War wages on until the very last minute," Rebo said. "We've seen it in our own War of Independence and in World War I — how the fighting continues right up to the end. A soldier defends what their country has commanded them to defend. To be blunt, Ukrainians have already experienced various ceasefires and peace agreements firsthand since 2014."
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Aili Vahtla
