Experts cautious about Europe's role at Ukraine peace talks

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Saudi Arabia next week. Experts are taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the U.S.'s signals about inviting Ukrainian and European representatives to peace negotiations.
Keith Kellogg, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia issues, said at the weekend Europeans will not be invited to the future negotiating table. At first it was reported that only representatives from the U.S. and Russia will attend, but Kellogg later confirmed a Ukrainian delegation will also be present.
Ukrainian political analyst Artyom Dudchenko told Sunday's "Aktuaalne kaamera" that Ukraine will be left out. This would undermine the validity of any peace agreement.
"Even if such negotiations were to take place, I do not think they would be enforceable. They would play no role in achieving peace," he said.
Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at the International Centre for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Tallinn, does not rule out a separate peace deal. However, he said the situation remains unclear.
"The White House also said that they would carry out some sort of negotiations with Russia bilaterally in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia. In that case, not even Ukraine nor Europe were really invited. They were told that they will be informed, but that's about it," Klyszcz told "Aktuaalne kaamera."
This makes European involvement even more crucial, Klyszcz said. If Ukraine is pressured by both Russia and the U.S., then Europe will be the only one to stand up for Ukraine.
He acknowledged that Europeans have a tendency to seek consensus. Despite French President Emmanuel Macron's initiative to convene some form of a follow-up to the Munich conference in Paris on Monday, Europe still lacks a unifying leader.
"It has come through consensus. This will take time and this is maybe the thing that is the most fragile for our situation. That consensus can be found, and in similiar cases has be found in the past. It just takes time. In that sense, neither him [Macron] nor the future German chancellor or the present one, Olaf Scholz, despite the fact that they are some of the larger countries they cannot really assume leadership," Klyszcz explained.
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Editor: Helen Wright