EDF colonel: Russian armed forces reliant on external assistance
Although there has been much public discussion about possible peace talks, the fighting in Ukraine has not subsided and continues in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as in Russia's Kursk Oblast and to a lesser extent in the Kherson and Kharkiv directions, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.
"In the main thrust – in Donetsk Oblast in and around the city of Pokrovsk – Russian forces continue to advance: they have reached the southern suburbs of Pokrovsk, and the settlement of Kotlyne southwest of Pokrovsk is also under control," Col. Kiviselg said.
"The villages of Dachne and Ulakly have been captured in the Kurakhove region, and the village of Kostyantynopil, west of Ulakly, is likely to fall under Russian control next. It is possible that there will be a threat of encirclement for the Ukrainian forces in this area, which is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the Vovcha River flows on the northern side of the encirclement ring. That is, it provides a natural barrier," Col. Kiviselg explained.
At the same time, that progress has not come easily, according to Col. Kiviselg. in February, the Russian forces have advanced an average of almost one square kilometer per day and have also lost some high-value equipment. It is possible that Ukrainian forces have succeeded in destroying Russia's S-350 Vitjaz anti-aircraft missile system, and the first destruction of a TOS-2 has also been detected. Both were lost in Donetsk.
"In Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces have managed to keep control of the areas south-east of Sudzha which were captured in the offensive in early February this year. However, at the same time, they have lost some areas in the western part of the enclave created in August last year. There, Russian forces have taken control of the Sverdlikovo settlement, which allows indirect fire to impact the northeast-southwest highway near Sudzha, an important logistical route for Ukrainian forces in the region," Col. Kiviselg said.
According to Col. Kiviselg, the Russian Armed Forces may have problems with indirect fire.
"There are reports that Russia is expecting new North Korean ammunition deliveries for 122 and 152 millimeter artillery systems, in addition to various types of missiles. It is also possible that new North Korean soldiers will arrive, as well as indirect fire equipment. The destruction of the first North Korean cruise missile in combat has also been confirmed," Col. Kiviselg said.
Imports of combat ammunition, personnel and equipment from North Korea and other partner countries show that the Russian Armed Forces are relying quite heavily on external assistance for their operations, while trying to present a different picture to the public, the EDF colonel added.
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Editor: Mari Peegel, Michael Cole
