Defense ministry: Russian troops continue to advance despite heavy losses

Despite suffering heavy losses, Russian forces in Ukraine are continuing to make gradual progress and maintain the current pace of the fighting. According to Gert Kaju, head of defense capabilities at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, there have been no signs of North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast over the past week.
According to the Estonian Ministry of Defense, the Russian Federation's armed forces have maintained a similar pace on the front line over the past week to before, with an average of 168 attacks launched per day.
Thus, while the potential approach of peace talks has been increasingly reported in both Western and Russian media in recent weeks, this is not reflected on the battlefield. Russian troops have continued their war of attrition with heavy losses, the ministry noted.
The Russian Armed Forces continue to recruit actively, including in the St. Petersburg region, where those who join the forces are being paid ever higher one-off fees and better salaries. According to the Ministry of Defense, this indicates that the Russian Armed Forces are attempting to make up for the losses sustained on the front line as well as to form new units in order to continue the war effort in 2025.
Gert Kaju, head of defense capabilities at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, noted that neither side had achieved any significant results on the Kursk front over the past week. "There has been no significant loss of territory, nor have there been any gains, so in some ways there may be a stalemate. However, there is still active fighting there as well."
According to Kaju, there have been no significant signs of North Korean soldiers involved active combat in Kursk Oblast over the past week. "This may be due to the fact that they have also suffered quite heavy losses and have been moved somewhere toward the rear for regrouping," Kaju said.
Still, the ministry says it cannot rule out the possibility of additional personnel, including indirect fire ammunition and artillery equipment, being transferred from North Korea for use in Ukraine.
The Donetsk Oblast and the Pokrovsk direction is still the focus of the Russian offensive. Russian forces have continued to make gradual advances in this direction and captured approximately 25 square kilometers of territory in a week.
"In this direction we can say that the Russian forces are moving slowly, but nevertheless, they are moving forward, despite the fact that they are suffering quite significant losses in terms of their personnel," Kaju noted.
The settlement of Velyka Novosilka fell into the hands of Russian forces this week, with Ukrainian forces forced to withdraw. Fierce fighting and the encirclement of the settlement began nearly two months ago.
The capture of Velyka Novosilka is also noteworthy due to being the site of counter-attacks launched by Ukrainian forces in this direction in the summer 2023. The areas retaken by Ukraine at that time are now back under Russian occupation again.
According to the Estonian Ministry of Defense, it is possible that in the coming weeks Russian forces will divert some resources from the Velyka Novosilka direction to the Pokrovsk direction in order to cut off supply routes to the city and thus enable it to be sealed off entirely.
In 2024, the Russian Federation occupied an additional 3,200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. By way of comparison, Ida-Viru County in Estonia totals 3,000 square kilometers in size.
The main advances of the Russian forces were towards Donetsk Oblast, where they have now managed to conquer approximately 10 percent of the entire region since September.
The major Russian advance that began in August and has not yet reached its peak. Of the approximately 500 square kilometers Ukraine re-took in the summer of 2023, around 200 now remain.
"This shows that despite high losses – a thousand plus each day – they continue to make progress and maintain the pace. What's more, it may be slow, but it is also consistent," said Kaju.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Michael Cole